North America Timber Update and Forecast

North America Timber Update and Forecast

The latest data and analyses for North America timber usage is contradictory enough without a constantly changing landscape subject to politics and evolving title rights. Please see Page 7 for what happened in Québec this week with First Nations resource rights.
Conference Board of Canada
Otherwise, the Conference Board of Canada this week released a new report obtained by Madison’s, is part of a good news/bad news story about a forest sector contributing $12 billion annually to British Columbia’s economy, along with 146,000 jobs.
Conference Board economist Robert Meyer-Robinson wrote: “The incentive for Canadian lumber companies to acquire production in the US is mounting. The production shift to the US has come at the expense of BC mills that have been either shut down or been sold.”

SOURCE: Conference Board of Canada
SOURCE: Conference Board of Canada

The report’s author expects industry revenues across Canada to grow 7.3 per cent in both 2015 and 2016, and 3.4 per cent annually in the ensuing three years. The forestry sector has been declining in importance in relation to BC’s overall economy. The sector, which generated five per cent of GDP back in 1997, now accounts for just 3.5 per cent of BC GDP.
BC Central 1 Credit Union
BC lumber production is “grinding out” year-to-date growth of 6 per cent this year as it remains in a disappointing holding pattern, said Central 1 Credit Union in Business In Vancouver Tuesday.

SOURCE: Conference Board of Canada
SOURCE: Conference Board of Canada

“Monthly production is trundling along at a pace that is not all that different from the average level observed since 2012. In April, monthly softwood lumber production was up 1.7 per cent from a year ago to 2.67 million dry cubic metres, pushing year-to-date production growth to a lacklustre 1.5 per cent.”

North America Timber Update

CMD Group Construction Material Pricing
Said Alex Carrick in the most recent issue of Economy at a Glance, June 24, “ The ‘copper wire and cable’ PPI Index has been sloping downward, in ski-jump fashion, since early 2011. Recovery can hardly be anything but extended and sluggish.”

SOURCE: Conference Board of Canada
SOURCE: Conference Board of Canada

Conference Board of Canada
While BC lumber production should remain strong over the next five years, growth is set to eventually slow due to timber shortages  and softer growth in demand from China. Rising production and higher prices mean forest industry revenues are set to reach nearly $29 billion by 2016, according to the Conference Board. Industry production is expected to grow by 6 per cent in 2015.

SOURCE: Conference Board of Canada
SOURCE: Conference Board of Canada

However, rising production and material costs are expected to drive strong cost growth in the industry. Overall, industry costs are set to rise by 8.7 per cent in 2015. The industry will need to find cost-cutting initiatives to help support its bottom line

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