US total housing starts were flat in Oct compared to Sept. Total permits were up +4%, and were up +3.4% compared to Oct 2020.
Single-family starts were down a bit compared to Sept, but single-family permits were up +2.7%.

Year-to-date data shows both total and single-family starts up significantly in Jan to Oct 2021, at +20% and +17.3% respectively, compared to the first ten months of last year. This indicates yet more strong home construction activity to come.

Lumber prices have flatted out somewhat after falling from highs at the end of the summer. Currently softwood lumber prices match quite closely to where they were at this time last year.

SUBSCRIBE HERE https://madisonsreport.com/subscribe/ to get a sample of the full 450 individual lumber and panel commodity prices for that week, as well as the market commentary explaining why the prices are changing.

On the weekend of Nov 12 southern British Columbia, including Vancouver, was hit of epic torrential rains that can only bring to mind imaginative disaster movies.
There was 200% more rain in Sept & Oct than usual.
In those 2 days as much rain fell (200 mm) as does in a normal wet month.

This combination of the second atmospheric river in one month and an already soaked ground created a disaster situation. The water literally had nowhere to go, and low-lying areas flooded within 15 minutes. As well, all 4 highways were washed out, blocked by multiple mudslides, or downright destroyed. At time of posting 2 of those highways have been cleared but they are small and one just connects a few towns (it doesn’t lead east across Canada).

Both rail lines were also impacted, one of the rail companies says it can get trains running a week from now.

Vancouver is cut off from the rest of mainland Canada.

The Port of Vancouver, which is the 3rd largest by volume port in North America, is closed because the rail lines are closed. More rain in coming in a few days, another atmospheric river is expected. There may or may not be a big impact on the movement of lumber products into the US and across Canada, watch this video to find out more.

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Go to the website https://madisonsreport.com/subscribe/ to get a sample of the full 450 individual lumber and panel commodity prices for that week, as well as the market commentary explaining why the prices are changing.

As this unusual year slowly wound toward a close, there were some developments which will only add more confusion and uncertainty to the construction framing solid wood marketplace.
One, which is well-known, is the looming increase — to almost double what it has been since November 2020 — of the Softwood Lumber Duty on Canadian forest products entering the USA.

The other, still developing at time of writing, is the massive damage to southern British Columbia transportation routes from the tremendous downpour of the previous weekend. Currently the City of Vancouver is cut off from the rest of mainland Canada as both major highways are either blocked by washouts or completely destroyed. Both rail lines coming into Vancouver are also seriously damaged, however the CP Rail says it will be able to resume service today (Nov 23). While it is assured that the supply chain to Vancouver will take many months to repair, it is unknown what effect there will be on lumber deliveries.
Currently there is nothing stopping wood being transferred from Prince George through Kelowna then south to the US border and east to the rest of Canada. However, the situation is not as simple as that. At time of writing the Port of Vancouver announced it is closed to incoming goods due to the railways being blocked; this means — at a minimum — there will be no lumber or log exports coming out of Vancouver by cargo. The port at Prince Rupert is still open (however the volumes it can handle are quite a bit smaller than Vancouver).
More torrential rain is expected for southern British Columbia in the coming days.

Cresting just above levels for the same week last year, for the week ending November 12, 2021 the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) remained flat compared to the previous week, at US$620 mfbm. That week’s price is up by +$11, or +2%, from one month ago when it was $609.

There were plenty of buyers looking to fill holes in their inventories – especially early in the week.

Demand experienced a palpable pullback as Remembrance Day, Veteran’s Day, and the NAWLA Trader’s Market all took precedence.”

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Traders reported tepid demand for Western S-P-F lumber and studs in the US. Buyers were extra-quiet late in the week as they attended the NAWLA Trader’s Market and observed Veteran’s Day. As for customers, even if they could find prompt wood it was delayed by at least a week due to significant shortages of truck drivers.

Canadian purveyors of Western S-P-F lumber related a decent start to the week before demand quieted down, as folks observed the late-week Remembrance Day national holiday. Large sawmills leaned on two- to three-week order files and kept firm pricing on everything but 2×12 dimension. Shipping challenges abounded no matter the supplier. Potential increases to duties on US-bound shipments of Canadian softwood lumber continued to be a frequent topic of discussion.

WSPF stud demand was OK for the time of year according to traders, but definitely decreasing by the week as winter approached. Sawmills were still busy enough that supply remained a jot behind demand, and resultant order files were in the range of two- to three-weeks out. Asking prices took a big step back on some trims.”

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages

When compared to the same week last year, when it was US$590 mfbm, for the week ending November 12, 2021 the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was up by +$30, or +5%.
Compared to two years’ ago when it was $396, that week’s price was up by +$224, or +57%.

As supply-chain disruptions increased costs, new U.S. home construction slowed down in October, driven by a drop in single-family projects.
For October 2021, total residential starts in the US remained essentially flat from the previous month, at 1.520 million units.

Continuing to improve as throughout this year, permits for future homebuilding in October were up by +4% compared to the previous month, when it was 1.586 million, to a rate of 1.650 million units. This is a +3.4% increase over October 2020, when it was 1.041 million units.

There were about 333,000 job openings in the construction industry as of the end of September, and according to the NAHB, availability of land for building is at multi-decade lows. As well, construction costs jumped a record +12.3% year-on-year in October, according to the latest producer price data.

October starts of single-family housing, the largest share of the market and construction method which uses the most wood, was 1.039 million annualized, an almost -4% drop compared to September, when it was 1.081 million. Single-family permits, however, rose by +2.7% above September, to 1.069 million units from 1.041 million units.

Over the first 10 months of 2021 there were permits issued for 1.439 million residential units, an increase of +20% from 1.199 million at the same point in 2020. Single-family permits, meanwhile, improved +17.3 percent year-over-year to 949,400 units.
Shrewd investors know that construction framing softwood lumber prices are a good leading indicator for US housing activity, including home building and home sales.  Don’t miss out, get lumber price data updates directly to your desktop every Friday morning.

Benchmark Softwood Lumber Commodity Western Spruce-Pine-Fir Price: October 2021

Looking at lumber prices, cresting just above levels for the same week last year, for the week ending November 12, 2021 the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) remained flat compared to the previous week, at US$620 mfbm. That week’s price is up by +$11, or +2%, from one month ago when it was $609.

The Census housing report also showed the number of homes under construction but not yet completed rose to 1.45 million, the highest since 1974. The number of houses that remain under construction exceeded the number of those completed for the fifth straight month and by the most on record as delays persist.

Starts have declined from the 1.725 million unit-pace scaled in March, which was more than a 14-1/2-year high. Still, home building remains underpinned by a severe shortage of previously owned homes on the market, which has resulted in record house price increases.

STAY AHEAD of US housing price data by getting access to softwood lumber prices. Released every Friday for that week, since 1952 Madison’s Lumber Prices is used by the forest products industry as a price guide for North American construction framing dimension softwood lumber. These are, of course, the inputs into US and Canadian home building materials.

* Madison’s Lumber Prices, weekly, are a good forecast indicator of US home builder’s current lumber buying activity ——> DETAILS

US Housing 1-Unit Starts & Permits October and Benchmark Softwood Lumber Prices November: 2021

When compared to the same week last year, when it was US$590 mfbm, for the week ending November 12, 2021 the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was up by +$30, or +5%.
Compared to two years’ ago when it was $396, that week’s price was up by +$224, or +57%.

Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Historical Perspective

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After consistent — if moderate — climbs in September and October, most benchmark construction framing dimension softwood lumber prices have levelled off to match where they were one year ago, said weekly forest industry price guide Madison’s Lumber Reporter.

In many ways the market dynamics are the same: constrained supply against ongoing strong demand, serious ongoing problems with transportation, difficulty finding workers, and unseasonal strong construction activity. In other ways the lumber market this year differs from 2020.
One thing is the same though: the week of November 5 was the North American Wholesale Lumbermen’s Association annual meeting, where sawmills and wholesalers from across Canada and the US meet. Much clarity will be decided between players during this important event; Madison’s will update readers on the results of that.
Staying flat for the first time in many weeks, for the week ending November 5, 2021, the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$620 mfbm. This is down by -$10, or -2%, from the previous week when it was $630.

Large sawmills in British Columbia mostly held firm on pricing thanks to strong three- to four-week order files.

As November kicked off, demand for lumber and studs ebbed noticeably while flat pricing persisted in panels.”

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Suppliers of Western S-P-F lumber and studs in the US reported muted demand to start the month of November. Asking prices remained firm from most sawmills, but cracks were starting to show among smaller producers who had weaker order file positions. Average lead times were apparently two- to three-weeks out.

Demand for Western S-P-F commodities in Canada sagged as November kicked off, with a much more cautious tone from buyers compared to October. Availability appeared to be improving, making customers tentative and more apt to draw from secondary suppliers who could offer quicker shipment. For their part, smaller producers with less solid bookings were open to lower numbers to keep fibre flowing from their yards.

The week began with unhurried demand for Eastern S-P-F as buyers restrained themselves and pricing appeared vulnerable. Sawmills were aggressive sellers and voiced their eagerness to ship more. A dearth of drivers and other personnel caused severe transportation bottlenecks. Around midweek sales activity did perk back up in response to lower prices.”

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages

For the week ending November 5, 2021 the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) is up by +$11, or +2%, from one month ago when it was US$609 mfbm.

When compared to the same week last year, when it was $580, this week’s price is up by +$40, or +7%. Compared to two years’ ago when it was $396, this week’s price is up by +$224, or +57%.

The annual data update of Madison’s Sawmill Lumber Directory Listings is complete and live online. Be among the first to subscribe and gain access to this worthwhile knowledge base!
The integration of Madison’s Sawmill Directory with Blue Book Services’ Lumber Blue Book is now available for you.

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The combined dataset contains over 23,000 headquarter listings and over 8,000 branch listings, for companies throughout the lumber supply chain, including: primary sawmills, wholesalers, secondary remanufacturers, importers, exporters, and lumber yards.

Let Madison’s and Blue Book Services help you find all the wood you need. Our combined database is far more than just a list of names and addresses. We show you which companies produce what products, then put you in touch with sales managers and key contacts in the North American forest products industry. 

Subscribing to Our Service Will Prove its Value to You Every Single Day, Because We Designed It to Make Your Job Easier.

During this time of fast-moving changes in wood products manufacturing and construction activity, don’t miss the benefits of this convenient and powerful tool which instantly connects you with the lumber processing industry in Canada and the US.

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For an investment of as little as US$689 per year for an individual user, or US$989 for a multi-user corporate subscription, you will have all the information you need 24 hours a day, available at your fingertips with just the push of a button:

FACILITY TYPE Primary Sawmills	CONTACT INFO Sales Managers & Sales Reps	FACILITY DETAILS Sawmill Locations
Remanufacturers	General Managers	Phone & Fax Numbers
Wholesalers/Exporters	Presidents	E-mail Addresses
Panel Mills	Division Managers	Mill Stamp Numbers
Shake & Shingle Mills	Forestry Consultants	Production Figures
Pulp & Paper Mills	Lumber Transporters	Reload Centres

Updated daily, this in-depth directory of lumber companies is delivered in a simple online dashboard tool, designed to easily search, filter, view, save, and print. 

Utilize our robust search engine to mine prospects throughout the supply-chain:

• View individual facility operations on a single screen
• The database can be filtered, searched, and sorted
• Filters can be saved for quick and easy drill-downs to the exact companies you need to reach
• Individual page entries are printable

Sign up now for your own login to connect with:

• what you need to plan your investment strategy in the dimension lumber and timber industries
• foreshadows spot shortages, overages, and balance of supply with demand
• the latest on North American solid wood and paper companies
• presented in a simple online dashboard tool
• available at your fingertips 24 hours a day

Contact our office any time to learn more:
The information tool for your forest management and investment planning decisions.
For further details go here: https://madisonsreport.com/products/madisons-directory/

Sample screenshot of an individual Madison’s Lumber Directory sawmill listing from the Blue Book dashboard:

Find all the lumber and wood products you need!

Western Spruce-Pine-Fir	Hemlock	Fir/Larch
Eastern Spruce-Pine-Fir	Western Red Cedar	Hardwoods
Douglas Fir	Boards	Studs
Dimension Lumber	Shingles & Shakes	Mouldings & Trim
Specified Lengths	Decking	Preserved Wood
Rough Cuttings & Timber	MSR Lumber	Pulp & Paper
Panel Products	Railroad Ties	Fingerjoint Stock

The combined database is available now.
To subscribe, please visithttps://www.lumberbluebook.com/join-today-2/
or call Madison’s at 604-319-2266 or Blue Book Services at 630-668-3500.

For January to August softwood lumber production volumes across North America continued increasing, but at a slower rate than earlier in the summer.
Sawmill capacity utilization rates in the United States and in Canada made some good improvements.

For the first eight months of 2021 softwood lumber production in the US improved by +3.3% from the same time last year, says the latest issue of the Western Wood Products Association’s monthly Lumber Track.
US lumber production volumes were 25,341 mmfbm compared to January to August of 2020 when it was 24,529 mmfbm. Looking at the month of August against July 2021, US softwood lumber production was 3,094 mmfbm in August 2021 compared to 3,045 mmfbm in July, an increase of +1.6%.
Compared to August 2020, US lumber production was almost flat.

Last month’s update here: https://madisonsreport.com/2021/10/20/north-america-softwood-lumber-production-sawmill-capacity-utilization-wwpa-july-2021/

Meanwhile in Canada, for January to August 2021, Canada sawmill manufacturing was up +8.2%, to 16,176 mmfbm, compared to the first eight months of last year when it was 14,956 mmfbm.
Specifically in British Columbia — which accounts for 50% of Canadian lumber manufacturing and sales — sawmill production volumes for January to August 2021 grew by +12.5%, to 6,445 mmfbm, compared to the same time last year when it was 5,731 mmfbm.

North America Softwood Lumber Production, Sawmill Capacity Utilization, WWPA: August 2021

US sawmill production as a per cent of practical capacity for the first eight months of this year grew by another +1%, to 86%, compared to the same time in 2020 when it was 85%, said the Western Wood Products Association’s monthly Lumber Track.
Flattening out after improving greatly compared to one year ago, Canadian sawmill production as a per cent of practical capacity stayed up in January to August 2021, to 81% compared to the first eight months of 2020 when it was a disastrous 76%.

Following the absolute plummet this summer after unsustainable highs in spring, lumber prices have been recovering during September and October, said weekly softwood lumber and panel price guide Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
In the week ending October 29, most construction framing dimension lumber prices flattened out, to finish the week at close to the levels of one year ago.

Levelling off after several weeks of increases, in the week ending October 29, 2021, the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$630 mfbm, which is unchanged compared to the previous week when it was $630. That week’s price is up by +$21, or +3%, from one month ago when it was $609.

Western S-P-F sawmills in the United States kept asking prices flat for the most part.

Demand was stable, but weaker than the previous week, as a confluence of factors caused buyers to step back from making purchases.”

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Demand for Western S-P-F lumber and studs in the US waned according to traders. Several key construction markets suffered their first real bout of inclement autumn weather. The earliest shipment available from producers was for November 15th, but transportation troubles added roughly two weeks to that timeline. Four-inch items were again the most sought after and the least available.

As October came to a close, Canadian Western S-P-F sawmills responded to steady demand with mostly even pricing. As order files extended into the last week of November, manufacturers restricted their production volumes due to high log costs. Construction activity in North America was better than usual for the time of year. 

Green Douglas-fir commodities experienced robust demand week according to suppliers. With green still the value species among the hem/fir complex, buyers convinced any of their charges willing to switch from dry to green to do so. Demand for low grades remained hot. Sawmills maintained order files between one and three weeks out, mill- and item-dependent.”

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages

When compared to the same week last year, when it was $660, this week’s price of Western S-P-F 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) is up by +$30, or +5%.
Compared to two years’ ago when it was $396, this week’s price is up by +$234, or +37%.

ORIENTED STRAND BOARD (OSB)

In the week ending November 05, 2021, the price of OSB Canadian – 7/16 – Ontario was C$550 msf. This is down by -$20, or (-4%), from the previous week when it was $570.
That week’s price is down by -$16, or (-3%), from one month ago when it was $566.
When compared to the same week last year, when it was $895, that week’s price is down by -$355, or (-40%). Compared to two years’ ago when it was $285, that week’s price is up by $255, or (89%).

PLYWOOD

In the week ending November 05, 2021, the price of Canadian Softwood Plywood – 3/8 – FOB Toronto was C$559 msf. This is down by $0, or (0%), from the previous week when it was $559.
That week’s price is down by $0, or (0%), from one month ago when it was $559.
When compared to the same week last year, when it was $766, that week’s price is down by -$207, or (-27%). Compared to two years’ ago when it was $434, that week’s price is up by $125, or (29%).

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Sales of new US single-family homes rocketed up by an astonishing +14%, while the median price of newly built houses increased by even more, compared to the previous month.
There were 800,000 new US homes sold in September, which is up +14% from a significantly downwardly-corrected 702,000 in August, and is down -18% from 971,000 in September 2020.

The median sales price shot up to US$408,800, from US$390,000 in August, which is up a remarkable +20%. Prices are now 45.5% above their 2006 peak. Sales continued to be concentrated in the $200,000-$749,000 price range.
House supply has lagged behind demand, as builders are constrained by high lumber prices as well as shortages of other building materials, household appliances, land, and labour.

Looking at lumber prices, showing surprising strength in ongoing increases when usually lumber prices are dropping, in the week ending October 22, 2021, the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$630 mfbm, which is up by a remarkable +$35, or +6%, from the previous week when it was $595.

This price is up by +$142, or +29%, from one month ago when it was $488.

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