US total housing starts for August 2021 increased by +4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.615 million. For August 2021, total residential starts in the US shot up by +12.3% from the same month one year ago, when it was 1.416 million.

Improving further over gains throughout this year, permits for future homebuilding in August were up by +6% compared to the previous month, when it was 1.630 million, to a rate of 1.728 million units.
Indeed, August 2021 permits are up +13.5% compared to August 2020 when it was 1.522 million.
August starts of single-family housing, the largest share of the market and construction method which uses the most wood, was 1.076 million annualized, a -2.8% drop compared to July, when it was 1.107 million. Once again single-family permits were almost flat, at 1.054 million units, +0.6% above July when it was 1.048 million units.

Similar to this time last year, when lumber prices started rising to reach what was then the all-time historical high, solid wood construction materials prices have been ticking up in the past few weeks. This is traditionally not a time for lumber prices to be increasing.

The latest US housing starts and home sales and price data has been incredibly strong … will we see lumber prices keep going up to the end of this year? Only time will tell.
Continuing steady increases following the Labour Day long weekend, for the week of September 30, 2021 the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$540 mfbm. This is up by +$30, or +6%, from the previous week when it was $510.

Sawmills in the North reported challenges getting product into Southern markets as returning rail cars were often delayed.  

Traders of sheet goods laboured through another week of flat prices, while those in dimension and studs reported solid demand and sales activity.

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

US buyers of Western S-P-F commodities were busy generating stable demand in a rising market. Construction regions across the country made hay as pleasant autumn weather permitted. Customers seemed to be divided into two camps: those who were frequently dealing in small- to medium-volumes, and those on the sidelines watching price levels while they moved leftover high-priced inventory out. Sawmill order files were into mid-October.
Western S-P-F lumber producers in Canada extended their order files into mid- or late-October thanks to consistently strong demand. All grades sold well, but High Line products were the top performers.  

Eastern Canadian lumber and stud producers reported vigourous demand that slowly petered out as the week wore on. Sawmills raised their asking prices on nearly every item while extending order files into the second week of October. Buyers had increasing trouble finding specific needs, as lack of material from both primary and secondary suppliers became apparent.

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages

When compared to the same week last year, of $960, the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 for the week ending September 30, 2021 is down by -$420, or -44%. Compared to two years’ ago when it was $376, this week’s price is up by +$164, or +44%.

After dropping all summer, lumber prices started coming back up a little bit around Labour Day:

For the week of September 24, 2021 the price of benchmark softwood lumber item Western S-P-F 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) rose to US$510 mfbm, a +$30, or +6%, increase from the previous week when it was $480.
That week’s price was up by +633, or +14%, from one month ago when it was $447.
Overall supply of Western S-P-F dimension lumber decreased noticeably with each passing day thanks to consistent takeaway and the curtailed production schedules of many BC producers.

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As the end of September approached the demand and sales of construction framing dimension softwood lumber commodities improved significantly, enough for prices to rise somewhat. This is an unusual time of year, after Labour Day, for solid wood building material prices to be rising. However, the current trend does echo the price movement of last year.

There was a brief pause the previous week as this price remained flat, then for the week of September 24, 2021 the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) rose to US$510 mfbm, a +$30, or +6%, increase from the previous week when it was $480. That week’s price was up by +633, or +14%, from one month ago when it was $447.

Overall supply of Western S-P-F dimension lumber decreased noticeably with each passing day thanks to consistent takeaway and the curtailed production schedules of many BC producers.

Panel traders bemoaned another week of flat prices, while burgeoning demand exposed logistical problems for lumber and studs.”

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Solid demand for Western S-P-F lumber and studs in the US persisted this week. Sellers reported consistent inquiry and takeaway from key construction markets across the country. Sawmills were booked between two- to three-weeks out, with shipping delays scuttling any notion of prompt wood and adding up to a fortnight to established order files.
Both primary and secondary Western Spruce-Pine-Fir suppliers in Canada reported robust demand. Sawmill order files were two- to three-weeks out as any available prompt wood was gobbled up by ravenous customers.  

“Strong demand for WSPF studs was evident again. Sawmills leaned in to double-digit price jumps. Buyers were busy inquiring and pursuing volumes as field inventories remained lean. Stud mill order files were two- to three-weeks out in most cases, with prompt offerings increasingly limited. 

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages

When compared to the same week last year, of $960, the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 for the week of September 24, 2021 was down by -$450, or -47%. Compared to two years’ ago when it was $376, that week’s price was up by +$134, or +36%.

Lumber end-users and resellers alike shed their reluctance of the past few months to make purchases, as prices have returned to what would be considered historically “normal” levels.
Once again lumber inventories were extremely lean, as those who could wait to buy wood did so. The previously stratospheric price levels of spring were a long-distant memory, providing confidence to buyers that now was the time to pounce.

Meanwhile, housing construction activity across the US and Canada remains quite strong, with the latest data releases suggest there will be ongoing demand throughout autumn.

After rising incrementally since Labour Day, for the week of September 17, 2021 the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) remained flat at US$480 mfbm. That week’s price was up by +$33, or +7%, from one month ago when it was $447.

As volumes were cleaned up by hungry customers who had let their stocks run down, there was a a much-needed boost of inquiry for low-grade offerings.

Dimension lumber and stud items again experienced limited availability, while prices and demand for panels were flat.”

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Tight inventories Western S-P-F commodities in the US were again a problem as scores of buyers jumped into the fray to book purchases, only to find supply was low. Players reported that getting price quotes back from Spruce-Pine-Fir sawmills was a persistent challenge. One of the main culprits of low supply was difficulty in sourcing trucks. Personnel and equipment shortages caused delays of at least one week, and that was only if the supplier had material on the ground.  
Western S-P-F producers in Canada described a steadily improving lumber demand, with inquiry and follow-through purchases increasing as the week wore on. Order files ranged from one- to three-weeks out depending on the sawmill and item. Buyers who had been practicing fence-sitting came down from their perches, as construction markets across the continent bloomed. 

Sales of Southern Yellow Pine lumber and studs advanced. Regardless, sawmills continued to have trouble making higher prices stick. A few mills went off the market on 2×4, while, at two weeks, 2×12 garnered the longest order file of any SYP dimension commodity. ”

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages

When compared to the same week last year, of $960, the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 for the week of September 17, 2021 was down by -$480, or -50%.
Compared to two years’ ago when it was $382, that week’s price was up by +$98, or +26%.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development released September 24 new home sales and house price data.
New home sales comprise 10% of real estate activity and are considered a leading housing market indicator as they are recorded when contracts are signed.

Continuing to recover after slight drops in the summer, sales of new US single-family homes improved in August, as did the median price of newly built houses, compared to the previous month. There were 740,000 new homes on the market in August, which is up +1.5% from 729,000 in July, and is down -24.3% from a phenomenal 977,000 in August 2020.
At the sales pace in August it would take a normal 6.1 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, similar to the 6.2 months seen in July.
The median sales price ticked up to US$390,000, from US$390,000 in July. The August price is up an astonishing +20% from one year ago, when it was $325,500. House supply has lagged behind demand, as builders are constrained by high lumber prices as well as shortages of other building materials, household appliances, land, and labour.
The ratio of homes sold in July either still under construction or yet to be built was an incredible 78%.

Shrewd investors know that construction framing softwood lumber prices are a good leading indicator for US housing activity, including home building and home sales. Don’t miss out, get lumber price data updates directly to your desktop every Friday morning.

– Madison’s lumber reporter

Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages

Looking at lumber prices, after rising incrementally since Labour Day, for the week of September 17, 2021 the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) remained flat at US$480 mfbm. That week’s price was up by +$33, or +7%, from one month ago when it was $447.

STAY AHEAD of US housing price data by getting access to softwood lumber prices. Released every Friday for that week, since 1952 Madison’s Lumber Prices is used by the forest products industry as a price guide for North American construction framing dimension softwood lumber. These are, of course, the inputs into US and Canadian home building materials.

– Madison’s lumber reporter

• Madison’s Lumber Prices, weekly, are a good forecast indicator of US home builder’s current lumber buying activity ——> DETAILS

US Median New House Prices August and Benchmark Softwood Lumber Prices September: 2021

Builder backlogs of projects awaiting construction remain elevated and indicate residential building will stay firm in coming months and contribute to economic growth.

Benchmark Softwood Lumber Commodity Western Spruce-Pine-Fir Price: September 2021

When compared to the same week last year, of $960, the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 for the week of September 17, 2021 was down by -$480, or -50%. Compared to two years’ ago when it was $382, that week’s price was up by +$98, or +26%.

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reported September 22 US and Canadian rail traffic volumes for the week ending September 18, 2021.

US railroads originated 234,790 carloads and 270,832 intermodal units for the week ending September 18, 2021, up +3.5% and down -8.5% respectively from the same week last year.

Total combined US rail traffic for the first 37 weeks of 2021 continued sharp the increases of the previous reporting period, at 18,794,185 carloads and intermodal units, up +9.5% compared to the same time last year.

Regarding North American rail volume for the first 37 weeks of 2021, Canadian railroads reported cumulative volume of 5,480,022 carloads, containers, and trailers, up +5.6% from the same week one year ago.

After falling by -7% in July, US total housing starts for August 2021 increased by +4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.615 million.

For August 2021, total residential starts in the US shot up by +12.3% from the same month one year ago, when it was 1.416 million. Improving further over gains throughout this year, permits for future homebuilding in August were up by +6% compared to the previous month, when it was 1.630 million, to a rate of 1.728 million units. Indeed, August 2021 permits are up +13.5% compared to August 2020 when it was 1.522 million.
August starts of single-family housing, the largest share of the market and construction method which uses the most wood, was 1.076 million annualized, a -2.8% drop compared to July, when it was 1.107 million. Once again single-family permits were almost flat, at 1.054 million units, +0.6% above July when it was 1.048 million units.

Shrewd investors know that construction framing softwood lumber prices are a good leading indicator for US housing activity, including home building and home sales. Don’t miss out, get lumber price data updates directly to your desktop every Friday morning.

Looking at lumber prices, after rising incrementally since Labour Day, for the week of September 17, 2021 the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) remained flat at US$480 mfbm. That week’s price was up by +$33, or +7%, from one month ago when it was $447.

Benchmark Softwood Lumber Commodity Western Spruce-Pine-Fir Price: September 2021

STAY AHEAD of US housing price data by getting access to softwood lumber prices. Released every Friday for that week, since 1952 Madison’s Lumber Prices is used by the forest products industry as a price guide for North American construction framing dimension softwood lumber. These are, of course, the inputs into US and Canadian home building materials.

Madison’s Lumber Prices, weekly, are a good forecast indicator of US home builder’s current lumber buying activity ——> DETAILS

US Housing 1-Unit Starts & Permits August and Benchmark Softwood Lumber Prices September: 2021

When compared to the same week last year, of $960, the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 for the week of September 17, 2021 was down by -$480, or -50%.
Compared to two years’ ago when it was $382, that week’s price was up by +$98, or +26%.

Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Historical Perspective

Still improving significantly after massive drops last year, for year-to-date 2021 softwood lumber production volumes in the United States and Canada jumped yet again. Sawmill capacity utilization rates in the United States and in Canada also increased, yet again.

For January to June 2021 softwood lumber production in the US was up by another +5.3% from the first six months of 2020, says the latest issue of the Western Wood Products Association’s monthly Lumber Track. US lumber production volumes were 19,033 mmfbm compared to January to June of 2020 when it was 18,075 mmfbm.
Looking at the month of June against May 2021, US softwood lumber production rose to 3,208 mmfbm in June 2021 compared to 3,137 mmfbm in May 2021, which is a +2.3% improvement.
Meanwhile there was an increase of +1.9% from June 2020 when it was 3,147 mmfbm.

Last month’s update here: https://madisonsreport.com/2021/08/16/north-america-softwood-lumber-production-sawmill-capacity-utilization-wwpa-may-2021/

Softwood lumber production in Canada stayed on its trend of recovering for January to June 2021, up +12.8%, to 12,564 mmfbm, compared to the first six months of last year when it was 11,139 mmfbm.
Specifically in British Columbia — which accounts for 50% of Canadian lumber manufacturing and sales — sawmill production volumes for January to June 2021 grew by +20%, to 4,989 mmfbm, compared to the same time last year when it was 4,154 mmfbm.

North America Softwood Lumber Production, Sawmill Capacity Utilization, WWPA: June 2021

US sawmill production as a per cent of practical capacity for the first six months of this year grew by +2%, to 86%, compared to the same time in 2020 when it was 84%, said the Western Wood Products Association’s monthly Lumber Track.
Still improving greatly from last year, Canadian sawmill production as a per cent of practical capacity again jumped in January to June 2021, to 84% compared to one year ago when it was a disastrous 75%.

After a big lull in sales and steeply falling lumber prices — albeit from unsustainable highs — for the week ending September 10, 2021, sales volumes improved further and with that lumber prices again increased.

As often repeated by Madison’s: Labour Day long weekend provides good indication of whether lumber sales will slow to the end of the year or if there remains life in the market yet. This year, as with last, it is clear by now that strong lumber demand is with us for some months yet, before the usual seasonal slow-down and end to construction activity in winter.

Rising further from gains of the previous week, for the week of September 10, 2021 the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$480 mfbm. This is up by +$50, or +12%, from the previous week when it was $430. Reversing major drops from earlier in the year, that week’s price was up by $33, or +7%, from one month ago when it was $447.

Inventories up and down the chain remained light and created a note of urgency among buyers, who found increasingly limited availability from suppliers as they explored their options.

Positive momentum and encouraging sales activity developed in most product categories.

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Sales volumes in the US Western S-P-F market was vigorous as scores of undersupplied buyers came back from their Labour Day reveries, rolled up their sleeves, and got down to business. Any prompt wood that mills had left was gone by midweek . 
Canadian Western S-P-F purveyors reported strong demand in the holiday-shortened week as folks settled back into a somewhat normal post-Labour Day pace of work and school. Demand was especially strong in US construction markets.

Strong inquiry and follow-through from US markets and the Toronto region created considerable momentum in Canadian Eastern S-P-F sales. Sawmills upped their asking prices and got little to no pushback from customers, most of whom saw the tide turning and jumped in to secure more than just near-term needs. Retailers were among the most active purchasers as they worked to secure larger volumes at current prices.

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages

When compared to the same week last year, of $960, the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 for the week of September 10, 2021, was down by -$480, or -50%. Compared to two years’ ago when it was $376, that week’s price was up by +$104, or +28%.