that’s a good question!
somebody in one of my LinkedIn groups asked:
— Board Member at Eco Building Products
Quantifying the 2015 NA Softwood Lumber Market in terms of USD
“I have seen 2015 consumption forecasts at 54.1 billion BF but have not seen this put in USD terms. Suggestions greatly appreciated.”
Most North American dimension lumber prices have dropped to very roughly US$100 mfbm lower than this time last year. With seasonal slow-down of US building approaching, and given that field inventories at the majority of US and Canadian solid wood suppliers (manufacturers and secondaries) are very good, there isn’t much reason to expect lumber prices to rise significantly before the end of this year.
Statistics Canada data shows Canadian softwood lumber production (and sales) volumes very stable for Jan – July 2015 compared to last year. The Western Wood Products Association latest data shows US Jan – July 2015 consumption at 25.6 billion fbm, compared to 24.5 billion fbm the year before, a 4.1% increase. (Full-year 2014 consumption was 42.4 billion fbm, says WWPA).
Also from WWPA; Canada and US sawmill capacity utilization Jan – July 2015 relatively even, at 80% to 85%, compared to last year.
But lumber prices are lower, so there will be a drop of consumption in USD terms for 2015 compared to last year.