CoreLogic® Thursday released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for September 2018, which shows US home prices rose both year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by 5.6 percent year over year from September 2017. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 0.4 per cent in September 2018. (August 2018 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results each month.)
Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates home prices will increase by 4.7 per cent on a year-over-year basis from September 2018 to September 2019. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to decrease by 0.6 per cent from September to October 2018. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
The CoreLogic Year-over-Year increase has been in the 5 per cent to 7 per cent range for the last few years. This is still near the middle of that range. The year-over-year comparison has been positive for over six consecutive years since turning positive year-over-year in February 2012
Elsewhere, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and National Association of Home Builders analysis, released November 6, the count of unfilled jobs in the US construction sector pulled back in September, off a upwardly revised August estimate that marked a post-recession high.
the number of open construction sector jobs decreased to 278,000 in September. The August estimate of open construction jobs was revised up to 317,000, the largest count since the Great Recession.
The open position rate (job openings as a percentage of total employment plus current job openings) fell back to 3.7 per cent in September. The rate was 2.5 per cent last September. On a smoothed, twelve-month moving average basis, the open position rate for the construction sector increased slightly to 3.3 per cent, a post-recession high. The peak (smoothed) rate during the building boom prior to the recession was just below 2.7 per cent. For the current cycle, the sector has been above that rate since November 2016.