Lumber Prices and US Home Building & Sales Data

Lumber Prices and US Home Building & Sales Data

US housing starts and home sales data plotted against Madison’s proprietary lumber prices show a fascinating picture. While the real estate data comes out two or three months afterward, Madison’s North America construction framing dimension softwood lumber prices (wholesale) are released Friday every week.

Don’t wait two or three months to data to come out … sign up today for Madison’s Lumber Prices and be informed about this important information every Friday morning!

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See for yourself how astonishing the correlation between select US home building and sales data when compared to Canadian and US lumber prices over the past ten years. Below are various graphs comparing this very important data 2007 to present. The numbers don’t lie; the data speaks for itself.

The trendlines on this graph for WSPF and SYP 2×4 lumber prices and US privately-owned 1-unit housing starts are amazingly similar.
Benchmark commodities Western Spruce-Pine-Fir and Southern Yellow Pine KD 2×4 #2&Btr vs US Privately Owned Single-Family Housing Starts 2007 – 2019

Something that correlates extremely well with lumber prices (as it should): US Construction Spending. Remember that Madison’s prices are published every Friday morning, so you don’t have to wait two or three months to get an idea of what is happening with US Construction Spending.
Benchmark commodities Western Spruce-Pine-Fir and Southern Yellow Pine KD 2×4 #2&Btr vs Total Construction Spending for USA 2007 – 2019

As well, building materials’ PPI should correlate very well also, which it does.

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Benchmark lumber commodities Western Spruce-Pine-Fir and Southern Yellow Pine KD 2×4 #2&Btr vs US Producer Price Index by Industry: Building Materials and Supplies Dealers 2007 – 2019

Oriented Strand Board 7/16” Ontario and Canadian Softwood Plywood 9.5mm Great Lakes vs US Producer Price Index by Industry: Building Materials and Supplies Dealers 2007 – 2019

Most people might not think these two would match, but US Average Home Sales Price tracks very well against construction framing dimension softwood lumber prices. Remember you don’t have to wait two or three months to get an idea of what is happening with US Construction Spending if you are looking at Madison’s lumber prices every Friday.
Benchmark lumber commodities Western Spruce-Pine-Fir and Southern Yellow Pine KD 2×4 #2&Btr vs Average Sales Prices for Houses Sold for USA 2007 – 2019

Also fascinating, and closely-correlated, is US Single Family Home Sales. Something interesting here is that the panel (OSB and plywood) prices are correlated the best.
Western Spruce-Pine-Fir and Southern Yellow Pine KD 2×4 #2&Btr vs One-Family Houses Sold USA 2007 – 2019

Oriented Strand Board 7/16” Ontario and Canadian Softwood Plywood 9.5mm Great Lakes vs One-Family Houses Sold USA 2007 – 2019.

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