US FHFA House Price Index History vs Softwood Lumber Prices: 2007 – March 2019

US FHFA House Price Index History vs Softwood Lumber Prices: 2007 – March 2019

The US Home Price Index, released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of +1.3% in March, following the +5.3% increase in February. On a year-over-year basis, the FHFA Home Price NSA Index rose by +5% in March. It was the lowest annual growth rate since January 2015, confirming the slowdown in home price appreciation. Home price appreciation continued to slow in March. See Full Details Here:

Softwood Lumber Prices as Indicator of US House Prices

The above graph shows a striking correlation between North America construction framing dimension softwood lumber prices and US House Prices: 2007 – March 2019

Lumber Prices vs US House Prices

Shrewd investors know that construction framing softwood lumber prices are a good leading indicator for US housing activity, including home building and home sales. It is, however US house prices which have the best correlation to the movement and change of wood building materials. Don’t miss out, get lumber price data updates directly to your desktop every Friday morning:
Be ahead of these data releases … Don’t delay, this week’s softwood lumber market comment was published to the website Monday morning.

Madison’s Lumber Prices, weekly, are a good forecast indicator of US home builder’s current lumber buying activity ——> DETAILS

Benchmark North American wood construction material, softwood lumber commodity Western Spruce-Pine-Fir KD 2×4 #2&Btr (RL) FOB sawmill wholesaler price fell -$4, or -1.3%, to US$306 mfbm, from the previous week when it was US$310 mfbm. This week’s price is -$26, or -8%, less than it was one month ago. Compared to one year ago, this price is down -$352, or -54%.

The below table is a comparison of recent highs, in June 2018, and current May 2019 benchmark dimension softwood lumber 2×4 prices compared to historical highs of 2004/05 and compared to recent lows of Sept 2015:

Madison's Historical Softwood Dimension Lumber Price Comparison Table MAY 2019
SOURCE: Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Compared to the soaring highs of summer 2018, this week’s WSPF 2×4 #2&Btr KD S4S (RL) price is down -$119, or -28%, while relative to the 1-year rolling average price of US$425 mfbm it is down -$145, or 32%. The 2-year rolling average price is US$451 mfbm.

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