US Commerce Dept Preliminary Ruling Significantly Lowers Canada’s Softwood Lumber Duty

US Commerce Dept Preliminary Ruling Significantly Lowers Canada’s Softwood Lumber Duty

As the Softwood Lumber Dispute V file winds it’s way through the usual US domestic as well as international trade court tribunals, a preliminary ruling Monday from the US Commerce Dept brings a sharp reduction in the duty rates paid on Canadian softwood lumber entering the US. All companies named, as well as the group “all others” category — except Resolute Forest Products — will likely be paying much less on their wood sold into the US come August 2020.
The Commerce Dept will be releasing reasons for this ruling “within a few days”. In August will be the final ruling, and soon after the new, lower, duties would take effect.
Do Canadian companies receive back the amount over this preliminary ruling they have paid so far, since the lumber duty was put in place? Good question, that is just one of the many entanglements of a complicated trade file like softwood lumber. The other, something new, currently afoot is that the international tribunal for softwood lumber at the World Trade Organization is stymied since December 2019 due to refusal by the US to appoint new arbitrator judges. Another working softwood lumber retired, leaving only 3 judges on that panel. It’s supposed to be a minimum of 5.
This arbitration was quite close to nearing conclusion in 3Q 2019, that’s one of the reasons it was allowed to go on with only 4 judges.
At last update it is unknown if the WTO will be continuing with the ongoing Canada-US softwood lumber arbitration in international trade court.

Madison’s Lumber Reporter Western Spruce-Pine-Fir KD 2×4 #2&Btr (RL) price: Week of February 3, 2020:

In week ending January 31, 2020, benchmark North American construction framing lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir KD 2×4 #2&Btr (RL) prices popped up by +$6, or +1.5%, compared to the previous week, to US$408 mfbm. This week’s price is +$10, or +2.5%, more than it was one month ago. At this time last year this price was falling, so is now only up by +$4, or +1% compared to the end of January 2019, a significant drop from recent trend.

The below table is a comparison of recent highs, in June 2018, and current February 2020 benchmark dimension softwood lumber 2×4 prices compared to historical highs of 2004/05 and compared to recent lows of Sept 2015:

Madison's Historical Softwood Dimension Lumber Price Comparison Table FEB 2020
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On February 3, 2020, the U.S. Department of Commerce released its preliminary determination for the First Administrative Review (AR1) in antidumping duty (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations of imports of certain softwood lumber products from Canada.
The final determination by the US Commerce Dept on Canada’s softwood lumber duty rate will be in August. At that time duty rates could be lowered to:

  • 9.08 per cent from 23.56 per cent for West Fraser
  • 4.63 per cent from 20.52 per cent at Canfor
  • 15.84 per cent from 17.90 per cent at Resolute Forest Products
  • 4.32 per cent from 9.38 per cent at J.D. Irving
  • 8.21 per cent for “all others”.

Be ahead of these data releases … Don’t delay, this week’s softwood lumber market comment was published to the website Monday morning.

Madison’s Lumber Prices, weekly, are a good forecast indicator of US home builder’s current lumber buying activity ——> DETAILS

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Softwood Lumber Movers & Shakers: green and KD Construction Framing Dimension Lumber Prices FEB 2020
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Another week of strong demand capped off an encouraging first month of 2020. Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Compared to historical trend, last week’s WSPF 2×4 #2&Btr price kept rising, this time up by +$32, or +8.5%, relative to the 1-year rolling average price of US$376 mfbm, but are down -$25, or -6%, relative to the 2-year rolling average price of US$433 mfbm. This week’s price is up +$33, or +9% relative to the 5-year rolling average price of US$375 mfbm.
Momentum of demand from the previous week carried into the end of January, rounding out a solid month of sales activity for the US WSPF market. Pockets of cold weather afflicted certain areas, but comparatively balmy conditions were also found in some target markets and buyers continued to take away good volumes each day. Construction activity was surprisingly strong considering the time of year. Producers extended their sawmill order files into late-February on a handful of items, as earlier-availability dried up on others. Players agreed that 2020 has kicked off in a much more encouraging fashion than 2019.

Madison's Weekly Movers & Shakers Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices Chart FEB '20
madisonsreport.com

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