US Housing Starts vs Softwood Lumber Prices: 3Q 2019

Housing starts in the US grew +3.2% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.365 million and the pace for October was revised upward, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Department of Commerce December 17.

Median US House Sales Price vs Benchmark North American Construction Framing Dimension Softwood Lumber Prices: 2016 – 2019

WSPF-SYP-ESPF-2x4-Lumber-Price vs US-House Prices: Median 2016-2019

December 17, 2019  “The price of benchmark lumber commodity Western Spruce-Pine-Fir KD 2×4 #2&Btr last week was unchanged from the week before, still at US$394 mfbm (net FOB sawmill; cash price, or “print”). This price is -$2  less than it was one month ago.
Compared to one year ago, this price is up +$60, or +18%.
Compared to historical trend, last week’s WSPF 2×4 #2&Btr price continued rising, up by another +$25, or +7%, relative to the 1-year rolling average price of US$369 mfbm, and is down -$43, or -10%, relative to the 2-year rolling average price of US$438 mfbm.
Last week’s price is up +$20, or +5% relative to the 5-year rolling average price of US$374 mfbm.”         Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Average US House Sales Price vs Benchmark North American Construction Framing Dimension Softwood Lumber Prices: 2016 – 2019

WSPF-SYP-ESPF-2x4-Lumber-Price vs US-House Prices: Average 2016-2019

At this moment, Canadian and US sawmills are reporting they are holding off booking new sales until January, just to  maintain current price levels. If the customer tries to counter-offer at a lower price, they are quoted for January delivery. In the west, sales of WSPF lumber and studs in the US took another small step back last week as the majority of buyers had their immediate needs covered and purchased minimal volumes only.
For their part, similarly, reloads, wholesalers, and secondary suppliers have also not been building lumber inventory. Players remain cautious, especially given the massive amount of sawmill closures over this year. Sentiment among customers that prices might go down stubbornly persists.

US house prices rose in 3Q 2019, up +1.1 per cent according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI), released November 26. House prices in the US rose +4.9 per cent from 3Q 2018 to 3Q 2019.
FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for September was up +0.6 per cent from August. US house price appreciation inched up slightly in September with year-ago growth in the 20-city composite index rising to 2.1%, up from 2% in August, said the latest Case Shiller indices from Moody’s Analytics.

2×4 Dimension Softwood Lumber Prices December 17: Compared to Recent and Historical Highs, and to Historical Lows

Madison's Historical Softwood Dimension Lumber Price Comparison Table DEC 2019

STAY AHEAD of US housing price data by getting access to softwood lumber prices. Released every Friday for that week, since 1952 Madison’s Lumber Prices is used by the forest products industry as a price guide for North American construction framing dimension softwood lumber. These are, of course, the inputs into US and Canadian home building materials.

Established in 1952, Madison’s Lumber Prices is your premiere source for North American softwood lumber news, prices, industry insight, and industry contacts. The weekly Madison’s Lumber Reporter publishes current Canadian and US construction framing dimension lumber and panel wholesaler pricing information 50 weeks a year and access to historical pricing as well.

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