Weekly Softwood Lumber Blog

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In the week ending Sept 30, 2022, the price of WSPF 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$505 mfbm, said forest products industry price guide newsletter Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
This is down by-$15, or -3%, from the previous week when it was US$515 mfbm.

That week’s price is down by -$98 or -16% from one month ago when it was US$603 mfbm.
Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$540 mfbm, that week’s price is down by -$35, or -6%.

Compared to two years’ ago when it was US$960 mfbm, that week’s price is down by -$455 or -47%.

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US housing starts and US new home sales for August 2022 sharply reversed the downward trend seen in the past few months since mortgage and interest rate increases hit the housing market.

While it is true that a slow-down is apparent in both construction and home buying activity, it is important to note that month-over-month starts have indeed dropped, however new building activity is flat compared to one year ago.

Total housing starts in the US for August 2022 jumped +12.2% to 1.575 million compared to July, and were down -0.1% from the August 2021 rate of 1.404 million.Data for July was revised lower, from the previously reported 1.446 million units. Indeed, total starts year-to-date are down only -1.4% compared to the first eight months of 2021.

Meanwhile, building permits dropped significantly – which is normal for this time of year – down -10% to 1.517 million from the revised July rate of 1.685 million. This is -14.4% below the August 2021 rate of 1.772 million. Data for July was revised quite a bit higher, from the previously reported 1.655 million units. During the first eight months of this year there was a -4% decrease in building permits from the same period in 2021. 

Benchmark Dimension Softwood Lumber Prices: August 2022

It is interesting to note that total permits in June 2022 were 1.572 million, almost exactly the same as starts for August. This indicates a good momentum for ongoing construction activity. That permits are down for August is not alarming since it is the normal time of year, seasonally, for building to start slowing down.

Combined, there was a very high 1.702 million units under construction, 812,000 of those single-family homes. This is well abovethe historical record-high of 1.628 million units that were under construction in 1973. These will eventually become starts and help to underpin residential construction.

June starts of single-family housing, the largest share of the market and construction method which uses the most wood, recovered from recent drops, up +3.4% to a rate of 935,000 units. Single-family authorizations were at a rate of 899,,000 units, which is -3.5% below the upwardly revised July figure of 932,000 units. Building permits are generally submitted two months before the home building is begun, so this data is as indicator of August construction activity.

STAY AHEAD of US housing price data by getting access to softwood lumber prices. Released every Friday for that week, since 1952 Madison’s Lumber Prices is used by the forest products industry as a price guide for North American construction framing dimension softwood lumber. These are, of course, the inputs into US and Canadian home building materials.

Shrewd investors know that construction framing softwood lumber prices are a good leading indicator for US housing activity, including home building and home sales. Don’t miss out, get lumber price data updates directly to your desktop every Friday morning.

Looking at lumber prices, staying flat from the previous week, for the week ending September 23, 2022 the price of benchmark softwood lumber item Western S-P-F 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$520 mfbm, said weekly forest products industry price guide newsletter Madison’s Lumber Reporter. This is up by $0, or 0% from the previous week when it was $520, and is down by -$83, or -14%, from one month ago when it was $603.

Benchmark Softwood Lumber Prices Sept & US NEW Home Sales Aug: 2022

The U.S. Census Bureau and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development released September 27 new home sales and house price data. New home sales comprise 10% of real estate activity and are considered a leading housing market indicator as they are recorded when contracts are signed.

* Madison’s Lumber Prices, weekly, are a good forecast indicator of US home builder’s current lumber buying activity ——> DETAILS

Showing a striking reversal to recent months, sales of new US single-family homes jumped significantly in August. There were 685,000 new single-family homes sold last month, which is up +28.8% from the sharply upward revised July rate of 532,,000 and is flat compared to August 2021 when it was 686,000.

None of the houses sold last month were below US$200,000.

At the sales pace in August it would take 8.1 months to clear the supply of houses on the market.

There were 461,000 new homes on the market at the end of last month, up from 459,000 units in July. Houses under construction made up 66.4% of the inventory, with homes yet to be built accounting for 23%.

Completed houses accounted for 10.6% of the inventory, well below a long-term average of 27%. At August’s sales pace it would take 8.1 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, down from 10.4 months in July.

The median sales price dropped for the first time in many months, down by just -0.6% to US$436,800, from US$439,000 in July. The August price is down -7.4% from one year ago, when it was $404,300. It is important to note that US new home prices rose sharply through all of 2021and most of this year to date.

Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages

As for those lumber prices, compared to the same week last year, when it was US$510 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending September 23, 2022 was up by +$10, or +2%.
Compared to two years ago when it was $960, that week’s price is down by -$440, or -46%.

North America Sawmill Capacity Utilization Rates: WWPA June 2022

US sawmill production as a per cent of practical capacity for January-June 2022 was down to 84%, compared to the first six months of last year when it was 87%, said the Western Wood Products Association’s monthly Lumber Track.
Canada’s sawmill capacity utilization rate continued to struggle, as it had been for the past couple of years, for January-June dropping even further, to a very low 74% compared to the same time last year when it was also low at 84%.

A moderating of supply and demand kept prices flat for the week ending September 16, 2022, when the price of benchmark softwood lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was again US$520 mfbm, said weekly forest products industry price guide newsletter Madison’s Lumber Reporter. This is down by -$34, or -6% from the previous week when it was $554, and is down by -$83, or -14%, from one month ago when it was $603.
Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$510 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending September 16, 2022 was up by +$10, or +2%. Compared to two years ago when it was $960, that week’s price is down by -$440, or -46%.

As inventories in the field tightened up, many benchmark softwood lumber prices stayed flat in mid-September.
Supply at producers was quite lean, providing sawmills the opportunity to keep prices flat as they boosted order files out to two weeks — which is quite strong for the time of year.

For their part, wholesalers and other secondary suppliers offered somewhat lower prices to keep their more ample volumes of product on-hand moving. The week had begun with a potential major job action on US railways at the top of everyone’s minds, prompting those who had been waiting to make purchases to get off the fence and actually buy. Of course, the dispute was settled well before any actual work stoppage occurred, so by the end of that week all fears of delayed deliveries were dismissed.

Limited field inventories for the week ending September 16, 2022 kept the price of benchmark softwood lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) at US$520 mfbm, said weekly forest products industry price guide newsletter Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
This is down by $0, or 0% from the previous week when it was $520, and is down by -$83, or -14%, from one month ago when it was $603.

Sawmills were apparently still taking counter offers to clear out certain straight lengths which continued to show prompt availability, while common R/L offerings began to garner order files up to two weeks out.

The lumber market was in a pensive, anticipatory state as players waited for a resolution to the potential nationwide rail strike in the United States.”

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

US Western S-P-F sawmills reported encouraging levels of demand as buyers responded to uncertainty caused by the rail employment fiasco. Further forcing customers’ hands was the persistently-depleted state of field inventories, following a long period of strictly hand-to-mouth buying.

Purveyors of Western S-P-F lumber in Canada noted a better tone to demand. A considerable contingent of buyers pulled the trigger as pressure generated by the threat of a nationwide rail strike in the US became too much to bear.
Suppliers consequently reported steadily improving demand, with prices on several bread-and-butter commodities printing flat or up from the previous week’s levels. However, the longevity of this recent surge in business was very much in question.

Stud prices rebounded for the most part, with 2×6 trims gaining the most ground. The turnaround further dismasted already-confused buyers, pushing many off the fence and into deal-now mode.
Stud mill order files were into late-September and knocking on the door of October, while previously-ample availability in most items appeared to be drying up.”

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$480 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending September 16, 2022 was up by +$40, or +8%.
Compared to two years ago when it was $960, that week’s price is down by -$440, or -46%.

Global Wood Pellet Operations Update:

Colossal US Senate Bill Includes Funding for Biomass

In another show of political support for biomass as a renewable energy source in the inchoate fight against climate change, the US Senate recently passed a massive government spending bill that includes incentives for much of the biomass sector. Provisions aimed at incentivizing the biofuel and bioenergy industry include a new tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), a new technology-neutral tax credit for clean transportation fuels, and a new tax credit for clean hydrogen production.
In addition to the appropriation of US$500 million to support the development of biofuel infrastructure, the bill supports the renewable electricity sector.
Elsewhere in the renewable energy industry, the bill will also increase the amount of credit for industrial facilities and power plants that capture their carbon emissions, as well as for direct air capture technologies.

US Biomass Producers Warn of Ongoing Wood Pellet Fuel Supply Issues

Biomass industry representatives in the United States have been urging owners of residential wood pellet heating appliances to secure their biomass fuel supplies early, in advance of the upcoming heating season. According to the Pellet Fuels Institute, the absence of Russian biomass in the global wood pellet market due to the invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions is causing an ongoing shortage of supply. This development primarily affects EU nations, but the supply crunch is tangible in the US too.
Domestic inventories of wood pellets are apparently copasetic currently, but heating season hasn’t begun yet in the highest-consuming residential regions of the US, particularly the Northeastern States. Producers are adamant about the importance of inventory continually moving through the system in the run up to heating season, with strong late summer sales allowing producers to build inventory before usage begins to outpace production in the dead of winter.
Wood pellets are used as a primary or secondary heat source in more than one million homes in the United States, generating demand for nearly two million tons of premium heating pellets per year.

EU Biomass Demand on Pace to Set New Record in 2022

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent cutting off of the former country’s heretofore steady flow of fossil fuels to the European Union, markets in the EU continue their struggle to find alternative sources of energy generation.
A new report filed with the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) examines the role of biomass energy in pursuit of that goal. According to FAS estimates, the EU consumed a record 23.1 million metric tons of wood pellets in 2021, up 2.7 per cent from 22.5 million metric tons in 2020. Consumption is expected to continue growing this year to a projected 24.3 million metric tons.
According to the report, the main drivers appear to be increased co-firing of wood pellets with coal in the Netherlands and growing residential use in Germany. Despite increases in domestic capacity over the past decade, EU demand for wood pellets continues to significantly outpace domestic production, leading to a subsequent rise in imports from Russia, the US, Belarus, and Ukraine.
Russia and the US are consistently the largest sources of EU wood pellet imports, respectively accounting for 35 and 34 per cent of total imports in 2021. Canada was a distant fifth at just 5 per cent, behind Belarus and Ukraine.

Two Massive Global Companies Choose US Location for Biomass Production

Korea-based chemical company LG Chem and US-based biosolutions firm ADM held a signing ceremony in mid-August to launch two joint ventures that will be located in the United States. The projects will be located in Decatur, Illinois, and will include two plant-based materials production facilities.
The first joint venture, GreenWise Lactic, intends to produce up to 150,000 tons of high-purity corn-based lactic acid on an annual basis, for use in a wide range of plant-based products, including bioplastics. The second project, dubbed LG Chem Illinois Biochem, will expand upon LG Chem’s bioplastics operations and use lactic acid produced at the GreenWise facility to manufacture around 75,000 tons of polylactic acid per year.
The commercial production of lactic acid uses lignocellulosic biomass as a feedstock in the fermentation process.

It is normal for this time of year for North America construction framing dimension softwood lumber prices to be falling, as the bulk of main home building activity is finished for the season.
There are times when the weather is good so a bump in Do-It-Yourself and home remodelling brings an increase in demand at retailers, potentially propping up prices slightly.

Of course, the past two years have not been normal and it is still unknown if the usual seasonal cycle of real estate and home building will return this year. For now the benchmark lumber prices have waffled somewhat over the past couple of months.
Does this signal a drop, as would be normal, through autumn into the real annual slowdown during the Holidays? Only the coming months will reveal.

Correcting downward as expected following Labour Day, for the week ending September 9, 2022 the price of benchmark softwood lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$520 mfbm, said weekly forest products industry price guide newsletter Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
This is down by -$34, or -6% from the previous week when it was $520, and is down by -$83, or -14%, from one month ago when it was $603.

Transactions often took place considerably below print levels as primary, and secondary suppliers competed for limited business.

Confusion and trepidation were the watchwords in the North American lumber market as the post-Labour Day litmus test was unclear as yet.”

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Traders of Western S-P-F commodities in the United States remained unsure about the direction of the market after a puzzling post-Labour Day week. Buyers showed no more urgency than they did through the month of August, despite their extremely light inventories.
As one veteran player noted, it seemed like everyone was waiting for everyone else to make the first move.

Confusion and trepidation were the watchwords in the North American lumber market at large, and Canadian Western S-P-F  was no exception. Scattered reports came in from motivated buyers of substantial discounts at the sawmill level. Meanwhile, the distribution network appeared to be adequately supplied for the moment, with customers turning to secondaries when they needed quick shipment – albeit at firmer prices.
Transportation has been a low-key bright spot lately, with relatively smooth delivery times and decreasing freight rates as fuel prices continue to stabilize — and even drop in some regions.

Demand for green Douglas-fir was very slow again, dashing the hopes of suppliers who looked forward to September as a potential jumping off point to better business. Buyers absolutely refused to purchase more than they needed.
Resultant sales were sluggish to say the least.”

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$480 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending September 9, 2022 was up by +$40, or +8%.
Compared to two years ago when it was $960, that week’s price is down by -$440, or -46%.

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Historically for the softwood lumber and panel market, the week following Labour Day is the harbinger for what prices will be until the true seasonal slowdown arrives at US Thanksgiving.
For the past two years, of course, the annual cycle of lumber price changes has not been anything approaching the historical trends.

Could this year be the beginning of what industry will come to know as normal? There was definitely a drop in demand, as is to be expected for the time of year; however, during this past summer the sawmills responded quickly to market conditions by curtailing production and taking downtime.
Thus, the supply-demand balance could seem to be equitable. As such, lumber manufacturers and wholesalers were able to hold on to price levels of the previous week on most items.

Continuing the waffling of most of this summer, for the week ending September 2, 2022 the price of benchmark softwood lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$554 mfbm, said weekly forest products industry price guide newsletter Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
This is down by -$1, or -0% from the previous week when it was $555, and is down by -$49, or -8%, from one month ago when it was $603.

Buyers were in the driver’s seat as they played primary and secondary suppliers off each other, choosing the best combinations of price and shipment at their leisure.

Demand for solid wood commodities was muted as players looked toward the post-Labour Day litmus test of market conditions.”

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Western S-P-F purveyors producers in the United States reported little success as they lowered asking prices in a bid to entice hesitant customers. Throngs of players were off as early as midweek for extended Labour Day weekend vacations, turning already-middling demand into a resounding snooze fest.
Sawmill order files continued to shrink, with prompt availability apparent on most items.

Eastern Canadian traders were optimistic that a round of buying was in the offing – likely following Labour Day – but sales activity in the Eastern SPF market remained weak. Demand was a different story as suppliers reported plenty of inquiry, just not much follow-through. Wholesalers and distributers were apparently very aggressive with their numbers as they tried to move product, while sawmills also brought down their asking prices, albeit more judiciously.
Order files ranged between prompt and September 12th.”

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Demand for Western S-P-F commodities remained lackluster according to suppliers in Canada. Producers responded by adjusting their asking prices again on #2&Btr dimension items. Supply remained definitively ahead of demand in R/L, and most products showed prompt availability.
Buyers continued to manage their largely-depleted inventories and felt no pressure to act just yet. The Canadian Federal Government announced this week it will formally challenge US duties on Canadian softwood lumber under the Canada-US-Mexico trade agreement’s dispute resolution system.

Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages

Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$430 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending September 2, 2022 was up by +$124, or +29%.
Compared to two years ago when it was $966, that week’s price is down by -$412, or -43%.