Timber Revenues and Returns 2015

Timber Revenues and Returns 2015

CatchMark Timber Trust: Analysts Take

Wall Street research analysts are predicting that CatchMark Timber Trust, Inc. (NYSE:CTT) will post earnings per share of US$0.14 when the firm next issues their quarterly results. According to the latest information, the firm should release the report on or around 2016-02-22. This is according to data compliled by Zack’s Research. Analysts and investors will be paying close attention to how the actual numbers compare with the estimates. A large surprise factor in either direction typically can lead to a significant swing in the stock price in the hours and days after the report. For the most recent quarter CatchMark Timber Trust, Inc. recorded a surprise factor of 17.65 per cent as the actual EPS number was US$0.03 off from the consensus estimate.

Research firms on the Street have price targets on the name ranging from US$14 to US$14 with a standard deviation of US$0. The consensus target from the three analysts providing projections currently stands at US$14. The mean target was last revised on 2015-12- 14. These are short term projections for the next 12 months.

Nationally, the number of single-family detached house rentals increased by 3.2 million between 2004 and 2013, according to Harvard’s Center for Housing Studies.

Oregon Timber Revenue Crisis

Josh Lehner with the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis said to Northwest Public Radio, January 7, since 1978 Harney County has lost 99 per cent of its wood product jobs. Harney County is sparsely populated, with 7,000 residents living on 10,000 square miles of land. That used to mean a healthy timber industry.

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Overall, Harney County’s employment rate has remained flat for the last 40 years.

Economists say the county is part of a ‘Timber Belt’ that’s been hit just as hard as the ‘Rust Belt’ of the north-eastern United States.

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The ‘Timber Belt’ runs from the rural counties of Northern California, through Oregon and up to Washington.

Timber Report: Lumber prices stable but low

RICK SOHN — For The News-Review

“Mortgage rates remain favourable for home buyers and warm winter temperatures favor home building, for now. Log prices are high and out of balance with low product prices. Online mortgage loans are the new kid on the block. Recent trends of lumber, home construction and housing markets are comparable to 2006.

Lumber prices are stable but low. As was true last month, export from the US is difficult for US producers due to the high value of the dollar and the sluggishness of other economies (eg, China and Europe). Export to the U.S. is attractive for foreign producers. This perfect storm contributes todownward pressure on prices of domestically produced wood products.

Log prices continue to drop slowly, but are still too high for the product prices. The typical upward pressure on log prices as a result of log shortages in the winter, is facing the headwinds of the weak lumber prices. It’s early in the winter, though, and sometimes the best log prices are not until in March and April, occasionally May.

Housing starts and building permits are on the upswing again, posting the second best month since 2007. Mortgage interest rates have held steady, despite a 0.25 percent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve Board. The next 0.25 percent rate hike is predicted for March, with the possibility of a 1 percent total increase by the FED in the year 2016.

The competition between banks and online lenders to finance mortgage loans could eventually drive mortgage interest rates down. This could increase the home buying ability of the millennial generation and others wanting to buy.”

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