Lumber News

In an effort to make timber prices more responsive to market conditions, the latest changes to BC Timber Sales stumpage rates has that calculation based on recent lumber prices. As these changes start to take hold, the relationship between softwood lumber prices and log prices will become even more apparent.

Madison’s Monthly Lumber and Forestry Data Table

As true winter weather came on across the continent, total residential starts in the US for January 2021 fell by -6% to a 1.58 million annualized rate. Permits for future homebuilding soared again, this time by +10.4% to a rate of 1.881 million units, in January. January starts of single-family housing, the largest share of the market and construction which uses the most wood, reversed last months climb almost exactly, falling by -12% to a 1.16 million pace. Single-family building permits, meanwhile, rose by +3.8% to a rate of 1.27 million units in January.
Sharply increased homebuilding activity is being supported by lean inventories, especially for previously owned homes.

In the week ending February 12, 2021, the price of benchmark softwood lumber commodity item Western S-P-F KD 2×4 #2&Btr rose another +$32, or +3%, to US$992 mfbm, from $960 the previous week, said Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
Last week’s price is +$66, or +7%, more than it was one month ago when it was $926. Compared to the price one-year-ago, of US$402 mfbm, last week benchmark softwood lumber item Western S-P-F KD 2×4 #2&Btr was selling for US$992 mfbm which is +590, or +147% more.

If there was ever an incomprehensible year for forestry and sawmilling, it was 2020. Macroeconomic conditions in Canada and the U.S. weren’t any easier to decipher.
However, one sector that clearly did well was housing: home building and selling activity across the continent revved up to white-hot levels.
Indeed, according to the latest U.S. employment data, job gains in the construction sector entirely offset all the other job losses put together.

The pendulum of softwood lumber and panel prices swung widely, with drops caused largely by confusion around lockdowns and then by the institution of health measures ­­– specifically social-distancing – in workplaces to prevent the transmission of COVID-19.
Had it not been for these unfortunate circumstances, indications in early 2020 suggested a good year for U.S. housing starts, and thus for lumber sales. The U.S. Census, as well as the Canadian Census, data releases in February of last year showed a very solid prognosis for home construction and building activity.

Sawmills and lumber resellers across the continent were poised for a year of high-volume sales with the attendant high prices. But when the pandemic hit North America in March, the momentum of lumber manufacturing and sales tumbled significantly, taking prices with it.
However, demand for lumber supply for building projects remained and became pent-up over late spring and early summer. The resulting sustained rush of lumber buying caught sawmills and wholesalers by surprise, which then pushed prices up to never-before-seen heights.

Madison’s Lumber Reporter TOP SIX Dimension Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices Table: Weekly Update Jan 15, 2021

In the summer of 2020, the extremely hot housing market caught a lot of people by surprise, as demand for homes rose sharply and supply consequently lowered. As a result, home prices increased markedly. In the same way, the price of building materials – specifically lumber – rose as well. Expressions of shock rang throughout the value chain, as re-loads, stocking wholesalers, home builders, and resellers were caught with quite lean solid wood inventories.

Despite these unexpected circumstances, the higher prices were paid because contractors had construction projects ongoing and needed the lumber to complete them. Thus, the final end-user – the home buyer – paid the additional cost (approximately $15,000 U.S.) in the new home sales price.

As 2020 waned and sawmills across Canada and parts of the U.S. went into annual curtailments and seasonal breaks, there was not really a stop in business for lumber sellers and resellers. It is quite unprecedented for home sales and building to be so strong in November and December. This left more than a few operators caught short with not enough wood on hand to complete ongoing projects. Calls for orders to sawmills and wholesalers kept going on over the holiday weeks.

Indeed, this carried forward to the first week of January, with prices climbing every higher. “Where will it end?” players asked. They were desperate to know what the looming price floor would be and when that would occur. At the time, Madison’s Lumber Reporter suspected – which turned out to be true – that this pop in prices was the result of a lag in sales and deliveries leftover from the holiday weeks. By the time of writing in the second full work week of January, prices were flat and, in some cases, even down.

Madison’s Lumber Reporter TOP SIX Dimension Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices Graph: Weekly Update Jan 15, 2021

What does this mean for 2021? It’s hard to say, but we do know some important market conditions for the supply-demand balance.

December data for U.S. home sales and prices were even better than it had been in the summer and U.S. builders were having a hard time finding workers and new lots for building projects. Many important materials like windows, roof trusses, etc., were also difficult to find.

Meanwhile, log supplies at sawmills across North America were plump to robust, but transportation was very difficult, especially on the rails. Large equipment suppliers for logging and trucking reported being booked out for 24 solid months.

Western Spruce-Pine-Fir, Southern Yellow Pine East Side, Eastern Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 Lumber Prices 2018-2021 and US TOTAL and 1-UNIT Housing Starts DEC 2020

Given all this, it’s likely that from the time of writing in mid-January through the end of 2021, prices of softwood lumber and panel commodities are not going to drop significantly. The momentum of ongoing strong demand for new building, as well as for remodelling, will result in continued large volumes of lumber sales until the end of the year, if not longer.

The importance of U.S. housing starts – especially single-family starts – to sawmills cannot be overstated: 65 per cent of Canadian softwood lumber sales go to the U.S., largely for new home building. Another 10 per cent is sold within Canada, and six per cent goes to Japan. Japan lumber purchases are entirely #1/Appearance Grade, or Premium wood – not the standard grade, or #2&Btr, used in North America.

In the past couple of years, a close correlation has emerged between those benchmark dimension lumber 2×4 prices and U.S. housing starts (both total and single-family).

US New Home Building

There are some powerful fundamental drivers to North American softwood lumber demand, the most important of which is new home building. At the time of writing, the full-year data for 2020 had been released.
According to this data, in Canada, national home sales rose seven per cent month-over-month in December 2020. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 47 per cent year-over-year, and the number of newly listed properties climbed 3.4 per cent from November to December.
The MLS Home Price Index rose 1.5 per cent in December compared to November and was up 13 per cent in 2020 compared to 2019. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price posted a 17 per cent gain in December compared to the previous year.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the median home sale price increased 14 per cent in January 2021 compared to the previous year, to $320,025 U.S. Pending home sales were up 35 per cent year-over-year, while active listings fell 33 per cent in January compared to the same month in 2020 to a new all-time low, indicating the supply of homes for sale is very tight.
Of homes that went under contract, 38 per cent had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market, well above the 27 per cent rate during the same period one year ago. The average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their asking prices, was 1.5 per cent higher than one year ago.
Finally, for the week ending Jan. 10, 2021, the seasonally adjusted Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index was up 40 per cent from January and February 2020.

Madison’s Lumber Reporter Historical Softwood Dimension Lumber Price Comparison Table: JAN 15, 2021

Looking at the long-term housing market in the U.S., there are some key statistics to note. Millennials made up the largest share of home buyers in 2020, at 38 per cent. Meanwhile, the median household income of first-time home buyers in 2020 was $80,000 U.S., up from $68,703 U.S. in 2019. The median household income of repeat buyers was $106,700 U.S.
Overall, in 2021, U.S. National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun predicts new home sales will jump 21 per cent and existing-home sales will climb nine per cent. He predicts home prices will rise by three per cent this year.

Based on continued strong lumber sales, but mostly flat prices as of mid-January, it seemsthat the solid wood supply-demand balance is finding an even keel. In terms of the potential upside to lumber prices, look for issues with log supply. As long as sawmills have ample access to feedstock, there should not be any shocks with sudden, sharp lumber price increases

Check the story online at Canadian Forest Industries magazine here: http://magazine.woodbusiness.ca/publication/?m=853&i=692929&p=38&pp=1

Wood pellets and wood chips are the dominant fuels, with preference regionally specific.

The September 2017 issue of the Madison’s Heating Wood Pellet price report provided detailed information from a Natural Resources Canada / Torchlight Bioresources study on bioheat projects in Canada. This report was recently updated by Natural Resources Canada, exploring the growth of bioheat projects in Canada by jurisdiction, sector, and biofuel type.
The 2020 survey identified just over 460 bioheat projects, compared to approximately 350 in 2016. Key findings of the report indicate that regulatory regime and government procurement policies have a significant impact on streamlined implementation of new bioheat projects.
Additionally, municipal institutions such as schools, hospitals, and community buildings continue to be the strongest market for bioheat in Canada.
As well, European-manufactured boilers are increasingly used for new projects.

BIOHEAT FACILITY NUMBERS BY GEOGRAPHY, SECTOR and SIZE

The graph below shows the distribution of 460 bioheat projects by province/territory:

Due to strong support from provincial government subsidies and policies, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island have all shown considerable growth over the past two years. For example, more than 30 per cent of total projects added in Quebec, most have received provincial funding through the Transition Énergétique Québec – Residual Forest Biomass program. In contrast, Saskatchewan and Nunavut have no bioheat installations.
Smaller facilities with 1 MW or less of thermal capacity account for over 75 per cent of total projects in the Bioheat Database due to market demand, diversity of boiler options, and less cumbersome permitting processes.
Larger facilities are typically associated with forestry or agricultural operations that can provide consistent access to high volumes of biomass fuels in provinces such as BC, Ontario, and Quebec.

BIOFUELS (FEEDSTOCK)

CONCLUSIONS

Based upon the results of the 2020 Canadian Bioheat Database, followings are the key sector trends:

• Industry growth continues to be concentrated in provinces that have historically had the strongest bioheat industries including British Columbia, Northwest Territories, Ontario, New Brunswick and Prince Edwards Island.
• Regulatory regime and government procurement policies have an impact bioheat industry growth.
• Institutions, including schools and hospitals, continue to be the strongest market for bioheat in Canada but the commercial market is growing.
• Majority of the bioheat projects are at a scale 1 MWth or less.
• Wood pellets and wood chips are the dominant fuels, with preference regionally specific.
•  European-manufactured boilers are increasingly prevalent in the Canadian bioheat market.

Contact Sebnem Madrali (sebnem.madrali@canada.ca) at Natural Resources Canada, for the full report.

Sharply increased homebuilding activity is being supported by lean inventories, especially for previously owned homes.

As true winter weather came on across the continent, total residential starts in the US for January 2021 fell by -6% to a 1.58 million annualized rate. Permits for future homebuilding soared again, this time by +10.4% to a rate of 1.881 million units, in January.
January starts of single-family housing, the largest share of the market and construction which uses the most wood, reversed the previous ‘months climb almost exactly, falling by -12% to a 1.16 million pace. Single-family building permits, meanwhile, rose by +3.8% to a rate of 1.27 million units in January.

Shrewd investors know that construction framing softwood lumber prices are a good leading indicator for US housing activity, including home building and home sales.
Don’t miss out, get lumber price data updates directly to your desktop every Friday morning.

US Housing Total and 1-Unit Starts January & Benchmark Softwood Lumber Prices February 2021

In the week ending February 12, 2021, the price of benchmark softwood lumber commodity item Western S-P-F KD 2×4 #2&Btr rose another +$32, or +3%, to US$992 mfbm, from $960 the previous week, said Madison’s Lumber Reporter. Last week’s price is +$66, or +7%, more than it was one month ago when it was $926.

Compared to the price one-year-ago, of US$402 mfbm, last week benchmark softwood lumber item Western S-P-F KD 2×4 #2&Btr was selling for US$992 mfbm which is +590, or +147% more.

Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Benchmark Softwood Lumber Commodity Western Spruce-Pine-Fir Price: February 2021

STAY AHEAD of US housing price data by getting access to softwood lumber prices. Released every Friday for that week, since 1952 Madison’s Lumber Prices is used by the forest products industry as a price guide for North American construction framing dimension softwood lumber. These are, of course, the inputs into US and Canadian home building materials.

• Madison’s Lumber Prices, weekly, are a good forecast indicator of US home builder’s current lumber buying activity ——> DETAILS

Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages

Acutely Limited Lumber Supply Continued to Dictate Market Machinations, Pushing Prices Higher

Field inventories of Western S-P-F lumber in the United States were as low as ever. High prices and tight supply have continually put the kibosh on speculative buying. Sawmill order files at some producers were late-February while others were apparently into mid- or late-March. Low grade was in particularly high demand as many buyers looked for cheaper options of any kind.
Sales volumes of Canadian Western S-P-F commodities strengthened late in the week and sawmills in Canada boosted their asking prices across the board on dimension. Sawmill order files were solidly into the week of March 8th.

After some steep drops and struggling attempts to recover last year, Canadian sawmill capacity utilization rates finally reached normal levels in November 2020. Those in the US continued to maintain steady highs throughout the year.

Compared to one-year-ago, for January – November 2020 softwood lumber production in the US popped up somewhat, rising by another +3.3%, says the latest issue of the Western Wood Products Association’s monthly Lumber Track. In the first eleven months of last year, US lumber production volumes were 33,542 mmfbm compared to the same time in 2019 when it was 32,475 mmfbm.
However, looking at the month of November against October 2020, US softwood lumber production fell by -13%, at 2,852 mmfbm in October compared to 3,270 mmfbm for October 2020.

Last month’s update here: https://madisonsreport.com/2021/01/19/north-america-softwood-lumber-production-sawmill-capacity-utilization-wwpa-october-2020/

Canadian softwood lumber production for most of 2020 remained low compared to the previous year.
Staying quite low through most of last year, softwood lumber production in Canada was flat in November. Manufacturing volumes dropped another -5.2% for the first eleven months of 2020, to 21,202 mmfbm, compared to January – November 2019 when it was 22,356 mmfbm.
Still lower than the previous month, comparing the month of November to October last year, Canadian softwood lumber production was down by -3.8%, at 2,019 mmfbm for November 2020 compared to 2,099 mmfbm in October.

Specifically in British Columbia, sawmill production volumes for year-to-date 2020 continued falling, down by another -9.8% to 8,172 mmfbm, compared to January – November 2019 when it was 9,056 mmfbm.

WWPA

North America Softwood Lumber Production, Sawmill Capacity Utilization, WWPA: November 2020

US sawmill production as a per cent of practical capacity for January to November last year maintained its steady level, at 86%, compared to the first eleven months of 2019 when it was 85%, said the Western Wood Products Association’s monthly Lumber Track.
After terrible lows in April last year, Canadian sawmill production as a per cent of practical capacity improved significantly in November last year, at 90% for the month compared to October 2020 when it was 81% and compared to November 2019 when it was also 81%.

In the first week of February sawmills were taking orders that would not even go on the production line until the beginning of March.
This provides good indication that prices are not going to go down anytime soon.

Confusion continued in many quarters as both suppliers and consumers of North America construction framing dimension softwood lumber and panel products were not sure where the market will go this year. As January closed, it started to become more clear that there still was not enough wood in the supply chain to serve ongoing very strong housing activity. As more data came out from the US especially, players were beginning to see a better picture of what US home building and sales would look like in 2021.
From all indications, the momentum of increasing demand last year was going to continue likely through this year.

“A strong undercurrent of inquiry and sales persisted even as demand paused for customers to digest previous orders.”

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

While buyers of US Western S-P-F lumber were noticeably quieter, suppliers unanimously reported that demand was still significantly outstripping supply.

Prices of Canadian Western S-P-F lumber commodities continued their upward trend as producers boosted their asking prices. Buyers took a bit of a pause so sawmills shifted their focus to rail cars, supply of which was steadily worsening.

Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages

“Supply of Southern Yellow Pine lumber remained scant and buyers struggled to find material. Scattered reports surfaced of sawmills pricing higher than print levels on some widths which were in short supply. ”

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Following on the upward momentum of the previous week, in the week ending February 4, 2021, the price of benchmark softwood lumber commodity item Western S-P-F KD 2×4 #2&Btr rose another +$20, or +2%, to US$960 mfbm, from $940 the previous week, said Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
Last week’s price is +$34 less more than it was one month ago when it was $926.

Compared to the price one-year-ago, of US$402 mfbm, in the week of February 4, 2021 benchmark softwood lumber item Western S-P-F KD 2×4 #2&Btr was selling for US$960 mfbm which is +558, or +139% more.

Madison’s Lumber Prices vs Softwood Lumber Production & Sawmill Capacity Utilization Rates

Canadian and US softwood lumber production volumes and sawmill capacity utilization rates for October 2020 (provided by the Western Wood Products Association at wwpa.org ) against Madison’s Lumber Reporter‘s dimension softwood lumber prices.

For the week ending Feb 6, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 495,815 carloads and intermodal units, up +2.2% compared with the same week last year.

For the first five weeks of 2021, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 1,156,696 carloads, down -2.2% from the same point last year; and 1,442,642 intermodal units, up +11% from last year.
Total combined U.S. traffic for the first five weeks of 2021 was 2,599,338 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of +4.7% compared to last year.

U.S. railroads originated 930,303 carloads in January 2021, down -2.1%, or 19,799 carloads, from January 2020. U.S. railroads also originated 1,173,220 containers and trailers in January 2021, up +12%, or 126,548 units, from the same month last year.
Combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations in January 2021 were 2,103,523, up +5.3%, or 106,749 carloads and intermodal units from January 2020.

Canadian railroads reported 77,309 carloads for the week, up +1.1%, and 71,036 intermodal units, up +15.2% compared with the same week in 2020.
For the first five weeks of 2021, Canadian railroads reported cumulative rail traffic volume of 768,953 carloads, containers and trailers, up +6%.

Zillow CEO Richard Barton on housing market today: ‘Homes are flying off the shelves’

Home prices in urban U.S. markets rose +15% in the three months through late January to US$315,000, slightly ahead of the annual pace in suburbia, according to data from brokerage Redfin Thursday, based on geographic designations developed by the Census Bureau. It was the largest one-year gain since they began collecting data in 1990.
US prices are now above the 2005 peak.

National Association of Home Builders analysis of Census Construction Spending data shows that total private residential construction spending rose +3.1% in December 2020 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of US$691 billion. Total private residential construction spending was +21% higher than a year ago.

The monthly gains are largely attributed to the strong growth of spending on single-family and improvements. Single-family construction spending rose to a US$365 billion annual pace in December, up by +6%.
This is in line with the strong readings of single-family housing starts.
Remodeling spending inched up by +0.4% in December. Meanwhile, multifamily construction spending was +18% higher since a year ago.

An post by NAHB earlier this month revealed that 69% of US home buyers who were actively engaged in the process of finding a home in 4Q 2020 spent upwards of 3 months searching for a home without success.

For the first time in this series history, the number one reason long-time searchers haven’t made a home purchase is because they continue to get outbid by other offers (40%), not because of their inability to find an affordably-priced home (33%).
The reasons are flipped from a year earlier, when 44% cited unaffordable prices and only 19% better offers by other buyers.

In the first week of February sawmills were taking orders that would not even go on the production line until the beginning of March. This provides good indication that prices are not going to go down anytime soon.

At a time of year when home builders and retailers — the end-users for lumber products — are usually making their orders for expected construction and sales in the spring, softwood lumber prices surged somewhat last week as suppliers still did not have enough product on hand to meet demand. Due to low inventories, sawmills, stocking wholesalers, and reloads all had to book their sales for several weeks out. Normally at this time of year production has been good while demand is just starting-up after the usually slow Holiday Season.
However this time lumber manufacturers barely had a chance to catch their breath as the momentum of demand through the end of 2020 carried forward into the first week of January 2021, popping prices up at that time.
After a slight correction in mid-January, softwood lumber prices are headed back upward again; which is normal for this time of year however since they never really dropped in 4Q 2020, these new “floor” levels are truly unprecedented.

A strong undercurrent of inquiry and sales persisted even as demand paused for customers to digest previous orders.

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Demand for US Western S-P-F was less extravagant than in prior weeks but maintained a low-key strength, according to players. Prices advanced on most items as sawmills extended their order files into late-February or early-March.

Prices of Western S-P-F commodities continued their upward trend last week as Canadian producers boosted their asking prices. Sawmill order files were almost universally into the first week of March.

Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices

In the week ending January 29, 2021, the price of benchmark softwood lumber commodity item Western S-P-F KD 2×4 #2&Btr jumped +$46, or +5%, to US$940 mfbm, from $894 the previous week, said Madison’s Lumber Reporter. Last week’s price is -$4 less than it was one month ago when it was $944.

The transportation bottleneck for Eastern S-P-F last week continued to hamper overall availability of lumber and studs. Field inventories remained low and producers couldn’t keep production apace with demand. Early in the week buyers scrambled to find material before a snowstorm hit much of the Eastern part of the continent.

— Madison’s Lumber Reporter

Compared to the price one-year-ago, of US$408 mfbm, last week benchmark softwood lumber item Western S-P-F KD 2×4 #2&Btr was selling for US$940 mfbm which is +532, or +130% more.

The above table is a comparison of recent highs, in Sept 2020, and current January 2021 benchmark dimension Softwood Lumber 2×4 prices, compared to historical highs of June 2018 and compared to recent lows of Sept 2015: