Canada Looming Trade Issues: Conference Board

“Bilateral issues are not Canada’s sole concern,” Alexander noted. “The hang-over from the deeply divided electorate and the trash-talking of America’s democratic institutions will make US governance more difficult.”

– Craig Alexander, chief economist at the Conference Board of Canada

Canada Looming Trade Projections: Bennett Jones, Conference Board

Subdued economic growth for advanced economies since 2010 reflects both inadequate demand growth and a decline in potential output growth. It was accompanied by subdued core inflation and persistently low actual and expected interest rates.

“The world as a whole, and notably the advanced economies, have experienced subdued growth after 2010, much below the trends experienced before the 2008 crisis. There seems to have been a structural break, which the usually protracted effects of debt reduction which follow a financial crisis can explain only in part.”

– David Dodge, Richard Dion, John Weekes and Michael Horgan, Bennett Jones

Inadequate demand growth showed up in a considerable, persistent shortfall of actual aggregate demand relative to potential output.


The slowdown in and change in composition of Chinese growth, and more generally the slowing in world growth, combined with increased supply in response to high prices, led to a fall in commodity prices from their 2011 peak. In real terms, commodity prices in 2016 are at about the same levels as at mid-2000s. These more sustainable levels result from the termination of the commodity supercycle that lasted from 2004 to 2014 rather than from the structural break in the growth rate of advanced economies that started showing up in 2011.

Bennett Jones Fall 2016 Economic Outlook