Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, released Thursday, rose to +0.10 in April from –0.55 in March. This index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data.
Led improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.10 in April from –0.55 in March. All four of the broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from March, but three of the four categories made nonpositive contributions to the index in April.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.22 in April from –0.18 in March. April’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was some- what below its historical trend. The economic growth re ected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
This suggests economic activity was below the historical trend in April (using the three-month average).
US Leading Economic Indicator
What is the National Activity Index? The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.
A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.