CMD Construction Spending Forecast

This week was held another excellent conference call at CMD (formerly Reed Construction Data) on the near- to mid-term US Construction forecast.

Analysts Kermit Baker and Ken Simonson, out of the American Institute of Architects and Associated General Contractors respectively, and Canadian Alex Carrick of CMD.

CMD US Construction Spending Forecast

As always starting with a macroeconomic perspective, Kermit Baker of the AIA projected US GDP growth at 1.5 to 2.5 per cent for the remainder of 2016 and for 2017.

“The construction industry is back on growth, it’s really the only positive sector in the US right now,” detailed Baker. “US home building remains very heavily multi-family.”

Renter House Hold Formation

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Renter house hold formation is showing “very strong growth,” said Baker. “The latest data has blown away historical house hold formation numbers since the 1970s.”

“The architecture billings index has been up about 5 per cent since 4Q 2012, seems to be at it’s peak now, and will probably slow down 5 per cent through 2016.”

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US Construction Spending and Employment: 2006 -2016

US Construction employment is still down 13 per cent from the peak of 2006, but it is also relevant to ask if “will we ever get back to peak?” said Ken Simonson of the AGC of America.

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