US Negative Equity Rate, Home Property Values


According to the Zillow Negative 2Q Equity Report, released Thursday, the overall US negative equity rate as of the end of 2Q 2016 – the share of homeowners that were underwater, owing more to their lenders than their home was worth – was 12.1 per cent. That’s down from 12.7 per cent in 1Q and 14.4 per cent at the same time a year ago .

Fig-1-US-NE-Time-Series-8fda18

Elsewhere, FNC released their June 2016 index data Monday, reporting that their Residential Price IndexTM (RPI) indicates that US residential property values increased 1.1 per cent from May to June.

Zillow: US Negative Home Equity Rate

When examining the negative equity rate in urban and suburban areas, we found that 13.7 per cent of homeowners in urban areas and 11.2 per cent of homeowners in suburban communities were underwater at the end of 2Q.

Despite steady improvement in the overall negative equity rate, pockets with relatively high shares of underwater homeowners remain, especially in the Midwest. Five of the 10 largest metros with the highest rates of negative equity are in the middle of the country.

FNC: US Residential Property Values

The FNC June 2016 US Residential Property Value index data still down 10.7 per cent from the peak in 2006 (not inflation adjusted).

The 10 city MSA increased 1.3 per cent (NSA), the 20- MSA RPI increased 1.2 per cent, and the 30-MSA RPI increased 1.1 per cent in June. These indexes are not seasonally adjusted (NSA), and are for non-distressed home sales (excluding foreclosure auction sales, REO sales, and short sales).

The below graph shows the year-over-year change based on the FNC index (four composites) through June 2016. The FNC indexes are hedonic price indexes using a blend of sold homes and real-time appraisals.

FNCJune2016

Most of the other indexes are also showing the year- over-year change in the mid single digit range.