January 2025 marched on to demonstrate a good stability of lumber prices, even as possible looming trade barriers were discussed by politicians.
The generally even-keel of most construction framing dimension softwood lumber prices across North America that was established at the end of last year continued into this year. Indeed, the annual seasonal price changes, of approximately $150 per mfbm throughout the year, returned in both 2024 and 2023. Players were very thankful to be able to once again see previously-normal price swings so they could make their future business plans in a similar way to how it was done prior to the extreme price spikes of 2020 to 2022.
Expectations, meanwhile, for new home building this year are bullish; the latest data for US housing starts shows a
significant spike for December and solid growth last year compared to 2023. Historically the biggest home builders in the US start making their large-volume purchases in February, so the level of demand in the next few weeks will reveal a lot about construction activity in the spring.
In the week ending January 17, 2025, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$445 mfbm, which is flat from the previous week, said weekly forest products industry price guide newsletter Madison’s Lumber Reporter. That week’s price is down -$13, or -3%, from one month ago when it was $458.
The entire market waited on tenterhooks for clarity regarding additional tariffs on Canadian shipments to the US. Inquiry and sales activity was quiet and pensive.
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KEY TAKE-AWAYS:
- Customers navigated a confusing landscape with widely varying prices between large and small producers, and between primary and secondary suppliers.
- Commodity prices hovered around the previous week’s levels, adding to buyers’ sense of uncertainty.
- Most Eastern Canadian sawmills secured enough business to see them past January 20th.
- Secondary ESPF suppliers and distributors with stateside inventories reported a steady flow of volumes in and out of their yards.
- The profile of Southern Yellow Pine increased noticeably over recent weeks as buyers in the United States expanded their search to include species that won’t be impacted by the proposed tariffs.
Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages
