The beginning of April passed with the agonizing confusion about potential trade disruptions resolved; lumber and forest products were not included in the latest US tariffs.
Industry and traders breathed a sigh of relief even while the unknowns continued to unfold. Buyers and sellers alike worked to find where the true market value of solid wood commodities will land. Other uncertainties remain; specifically US home building activity for this spring, and interest rates.
As such, the caution exhibited by customers for the past almost two years remained. While retailers did step back in to make significant purchases, reloads and wholesalers kept on with their practice of only buying what they needed.
As yet no one is stocking inventory.
In the week ending April 4, 2025, the price of benchmark softwood lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$545 mfbm. This is flat from the previous week when it was $545, said weekly forest products industry price guide newsletter Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
That week’s price is up by +$4, or +1%, from one month ago when it was $541.
Wednesday’s tariff announcement appeared to exempt most Canadian goods; lumber included. Inventory holders were itching to get their wares flowing for the spring construction season but were increasingly relegated to inventory management while uncertainty continued to paralyze the market.
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KEY TAKE-AWAYS:
- Suppliers were encouraged by the news of no tariffs for Canadian lumber, but had to wait for surging inquiry to turn into actual sales.
- Follow-through remained pokey as buyers were leery of potential future trade disruptions after months of mixed messaging from the US.
- Inventory holders were increasingly relegated to supply management while uncertainty continued to paralyze the market.
- Stateside suppliers shuffled around volumes amid awakening spring demand.
- Freak, early-spring, ice storms in Ontario and Quebec brought a halt to trading activity in those areas.
- Most Southern Yellow Pine players worked to keep their inventory positions lean.
- Demand in the US Northeast remained subpar for the time of year according to Eastern stocking wholesalers.
Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages
