Oil shock, housing, and trade uncertainty in focus at MWC: part II
A panel of industry leaders at the recent Montréal Wood Convention examined key market drivers, including U.S. housing starts, mass timber growth, the repair and remodelling (R&R) segment, and ongoing trade uncertainty.
Industry panel
Moderated by Mark Allison of Boscus Canada, the discussion featured Thomas Mende of Binderholz, Doug Robinson of Weston Forest, and Frédéric Verreault of Nordic Structures and Chantier Chibougamau.
On the outlook for U.S. housing, panellists pointed to relatively flat activity in the near term.
Robinson said current projections appear reasonable in the absence of further geopolitical disruption, while Mende said recent global tensions have already slowed momentum.
“There was a break applied that didn’t need to happen,” said Mende.
Affordability remains a central issue, influencing both demand and how homes are built.
Robinson said cost pressures, along with demographic shifts such as an aging population, are contributing to smaller homes and changing design preferences. He added that lifestyle considerations, including the desire to age in place, are shaping housing construction, particularly in regions such as the U.S. South.
The panel also discussed recent policy measures in Ontario aimed at improving housing affordability.
Verreault said such initiatives could have a meaningful impact, though broader structural factors must also be addressed.
“The numbers are pretty clear on the impact of the housing affordability in a housing unit,” Verreault detailed.
Mass timber and CLT
Panellists highlighted continued growth potential for mass timber and cross-laminated timber (CLT), particularly in the U.S., though adoption remains less advanced than in Europe.
“In Europe, it has become a distribution product,” Mende said, noting that North America is still largely focused on large, high-profile projects rather than widespread use.
He pointed to emerging opportunities in applications such as multi-family construction.
Verreault said growing use in non-residential construction could significantly increase demand for wood products.
“It could be a very material change in the industry,” he said.
R&R market and housing turnover
The repair and remodelling market remains a major driver of lumber demand, but Mende said its growth depends heavily on housing turnover.
“The most important part is that houses turn,” he said.
He added that policy changes affecting mortgage structures could help unlock additional activity in the segment.
The [Canadian] housing market, the major factor impacting your business is in a recession. But it depends what kind of housing market. The main issue is that what we are seeing now, and this is very important to understand, is not a correction – it’s an adjustment.
Supply, species shifts and capacity
Panellists also pointed to changes in U.S. lumber consumption, including increased use of Southern Yellow Pine (SYP) in place of Spruce-Pine-Fir (SPF) in some markets.
“It’s happening,” Mende said.
At the same time, Verreault said constraints on fibre supply and reduced sawmill capacity in Canada are creating longer-term challenges.
“Many sawmills just do not exist anymore,” he said.
Mende added that high costs and uncertainty are limiting new investment.
“You’re not going to invest $300 million not knowing where the materials are coming from,” he said.
Tariffs and trade uncertainty
Panellists said uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and duties on Canadian softwood lumber is likely to persist in the near term.
“I believe for the near term, uncertainty is the right measure,” Robinson said.
He added that longer-term economic pressures could eventually lead to a more stable trade environment.
“I’m optimistic we’ll get there, but that’s a personal belief,” he said.
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Industry engagement
The event also featured keynote speaker Chris Hadfield, whose perspective on leadership and resilience resonated with attendees navigating ongoing global uncertainty.
Beyond the economic outlook, the convention continues to deliver strong value for participants even amid market uncertainty, said Sven Gustafson, events director since 2013.
“We get industry involved hands-on, which influences the quality of discussions and content is very significant. The organizing committee includes producers from Quebec, Ontario and the Maritimes,” Gustafson told Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
This year’s event marks Gustafson’s final edition before retirement.
“The basic recipe will be the same, but the new director will surely try to improve it even more,” he said.
Alex Fortin, MWC communications advisor, said the event has now drawn more than 1,200 attendees for the fourth consecutive year,
with increased networking opportunities and strong activity on the trade show floor.
The convention traces its roots to the Canadian Lumbermen’s Association Convention first held in 1908, before being relaunched in 2013 through collaboration between regional industry organizations.
The trade show featured 112 exhibitors, reflecting the breadth of the wood products sector.
Marie-France Gagnon, president of Quebec-based ScanMeg, said international diversification has helped the company navigate current economic challenges, adding that attending events such as MWC remains important to stay connected to market trends.
Damien Meyer, Canadian representative for European sawmill manufacturer Linck, said face-to-face interaction remains a key value of the convention.
“To be able to see your customers face-to-face is why events like this is important. Networking is an important component of this convention,” he said.
Story by Jennifer Ellson
As part-time Managing Editor of Madison’s Lumber Reporter, Jennifer brings deep forest industry knowledge and editorial expertise.
Jennifer plays a key role in delivering the in-depth market insights Madison’s readers rely on.