Balanced Supply and Demand Brings Stable Lumber Prices


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As can be seen from the first graph at the top of this page; at this time two years ago lumber prices crested to their recent historical high then started falling, while last year also at the end of July prices fell a little bit. Since then, the trend lines have been quite stable.

Gone is the time of extreme volatility during the changes to society due to Covid and the huge disruption of lumber transport after the atmospheric rivers in the northwest. In a larger sense, we can forget what happened with lumber prices from mid-2020 to the end of 2022.

While there will continue to be dramatic events which will cause price changes, that particular combination of circumstances is behind us. Given the return to rather moderate up-and-downs of lumber price changes since the end of 2022, there is now enough of a timeline to begin to

formulate the current state of the lumber market in North America. And perhaps start to have some insight into the near-term future.
As 1H 2024 forestry data is released, the bigger picture of timber harvest volumes, log sales, lumber manufacturing, and lumber exports — together with this price data — will well illuminate what to expect. Check back with Madison’s often for the full updates as more data comes out.
In the week ending July 19, 2024, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$330 mfbm, which is down -$2, or -1%, from the previous week when it was $332, said weekly forest products industry price guide newsletter Madison’s Lumber Reporter.

That week’s price is down -$38, or -10%, from one month ago when it was $368.

Some glimmers of hope appeared with spruce and hem/fir dimension lumber sales; demand for panels continued to languish by comparison.
Madison’s Lumber Reporter
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KEY TAKE-AWAYS:

  • Summer demand remained underwhelming.
  • Suppliers warned not to overextend; items ordered by July 4th should be gone by Labour Day.
  • Field inventories remained extremely low as downstream buyers again secured only a few weeks’ coverage.
  • Some Western sawmills missed their targeted shipping timelines, causing consternation among customers running tight inventories.
  • Supply of SYP appeared to be levelling out, with most items finally showing a firming price trend.
  • Inventories of Hem-Fir/Doug-Fir enabled purchasers to dramatically lower their average costs, resulting in a raft of volume-buys.
  • Buyers maintained their circumspect approach.
  • There was plenty of panel stock (plywood & OSB) available for prompt shipment.
madisonsreport.com