The enormous increases in the softwood lumber duty on Canadian wood shipments into the US finally arrived.
This during a normal slower time for both housing construction activity and sawmill manufacturing.
As hot summer weather across most of the continent sent folks off to vacation, lumber industry players worked out their responses to this additional constraint of cross-border trade.
Currently the two nations are in Softwood Lumber Dispute V (five), which — over the last few decades — has succeeded in reducing Canadian shipments of lumber to the US.
Historically, 85% of Canadian wood was sold to the US. Over the successive disputes, this ratio dropped to less than 65%.
In the past, it was still less expensive for Canadians to pay the US duty than the high shipping costs to offshore customers.
At this point, with the lumber duty so high, it is actually less expensive for Canadians to send wood into alternative markets.
In the week ending August 1, 2025, the price of benchmark softwood lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$533 mfbm. This is up +$6, or +1%, from the previous week when it was $527, said weekly forest products industry price guide newsletter Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
That week’s price is up +$25, or +5%, from one month ago when it was $508.
Softwood lumber duties on Canadian shipments to the US nearly doubled, to the endless consternation of Canadian suppliers.
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KEY TAKE-AWAYS:
- Mid-summer trading volumes were low, as usual, for sellers of Western-SPF lumber in the US.
- Western-SPF lumber suppliers in Canada reacted with resounding disappointment as duties imposed by the US nearly doubled.
- Sawmills in Canada and customers in the US were factoring in these duty rate hikes to assess the effect they will have on the market.
- There was limited movement in prices as summer heat and depressed demand kept construction and buying subdued.
- A combination of trade dispute fatigue and the upcoming holiday weekend in Canada resulted in apathy and absenteeism for Eastern-SPF players.
- Suppliers of Southern Yellow Pine noted decent takeaway amid hot summer weather and vacationing buyers.
- Most SYP sawmills reported order files to within two weeks.
Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages
