Economist Analysis of Current Lumber Market

Below are some cogent thoughts on the current lumber market today, from an economist at Seeking Alpha:

Softwood Lumber Movers & Shakers: green and KD Construction Framing Dimension Lumber Prices 2007 - AUG 2019

Lumber is just below its midpoint for 2019“, Seeking Alpha.

So far in 2019, the price of nearby lumber futures has traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in a range from US$286.10 to US$453.90 per 1,000 board feet.
At US$374.50 on September 12 on the nearby November contract, the price of the wood futures was a bit above the midpoint for this year which stands at US$370.

The current daily chart shows the price of November lumber had been falling from the August 28 high at US$379.30, probed below the US$350 level and turned higher moving to just shy of the US$390 level on September 11. Open interest at 1,971 contracts has been dropping, and it was at the lowest level since 2003, indicating a lack of interest in the wood market.
The price momentum indicator is rising above a neutral reading. Relative strength at just under the 60 level is at the upper region of a neutral condition.
Daily historical volatility at 35% just rose from the lowest level since mid-July.

Technical support for the November contract stands at the July 17 low at US$326 per 1,000 board feet with resistance at the US$405 level, the June 18 high. — Seeking Alpha

The price of wood hit an all-time peak in 2018 and collapsed

Lumber futures embarked on a wild ride to the upside when it hit rock bottom at US$214.40 in September 2015. Before 2015, the all-time peak in the lumber market was at US$493.50 in 1993.
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