As explained by Madison’s Lumber Reporter many times in the past, as far as the seasonal cycle of lumber sales — thus prices — goes, normally after the Labour Day long weekend demand starts to drop and by US Thanksgiving demand reaches the annual low.
This didn’t happen last year, and has not been happening this year.
Is that a signal that the yearly lumber market dynamics are changing, or are these two years going to prove to be an anomaly? Only time will tell … check back with Madison’s often to find out.
Rising further when lumber prices are usually getting quite soft for the year, in the week ending October 15, 2021, the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$595 mfbm, which is up by +$15, or +3%, from the previous week when it was $580.
This price is up by +$107, or +22%, from one month ago when it was $488.
As Canadian suppliers came back from the Thanksgiving long weekend and buyers digested their inventories, commodity trading overall experienced a quiet week.
Suppliers of Western S-P-F in the US described a pullback in demand as the market entered a digestion phase.”
— Madison’s Lumber Reporter
US buyers of Western S-P-F lumber continued to cover immediate needs when necessary but overall sales volumes were lower than in recent week. Demand was slow to start as suppliers in Canada were off on Monday for Canadian Thanksgiving. Sawmills in the US reported order files pushing into early November.
Canadian Western S-P-F sawmills and distributors described a quieter week of demand. Mill sales lists remained light however, and a carousel of just-in-time buyers kept sales firmly ahead of supply. Producers in Canada pushed up prices and extended sawmill order files into the first week of November. Production volumes remained lower than normal.
Western S-P-F stud producers in Western Canada fielded stable inquiries. An increasing number of studs buyers were on the sidelines sorting out their own inventories. Stud mill order files were largely into early November. ”
— Madison’s Lumber Reporter
Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages
When compared to the same week last year, when it was $960, the price of Western S-P-F is down by -$365, or -38%.
Compared to two years’ ago when it was $370, this price is up by +$225, or +61%.