As is usual for the winter season, in mid-December lumber prices dropped to their lowest of the year.
These levels, however, were quite close to where they were at the same time last year — or the year before, depending on the commodity. Despite the quite tumultuous year of on-again/off-again announcements from political leaders, the trendlines for lumber prices match the previous two years quite nicely. This provides the forest products industry the ability to see what is the new economic reality for the business of making lumber following the wild volatility of both 2021 and 2022.
In some regards the now-persistent low demand can be viewed as ominous for the looming spring housing construction season.
With so many sawmills at reduced manufacturing volumes or even offline altogether, it is clear that increased supply will quite lag any boost in demand to come in 2026.
In the week ending December 12, 2025, the price of benchmark softwood lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$380 mfbm. This was flat from the previous week, said weekly forest products industry price guide newsletter Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
That week’s price was down -$25, or -6%, from one month ago when it was $405.
Producers scaled back output while buyers went into hibernation; commodity prices hovered close to the previous week’s levels.
To subscribe to Madison’s Lumber Reporter, simply fill out an order form here: https://madisonsreport.com/subscribe/
KEY TAKE-AWAYS:
- In a trend typical for December, purchasing of Western-SPF from component manufacturers in the US slowed down noticeably
- Suppliers of Western-SPF in Canada advised their customers to get some extra coverage since there was virtually no risk at current takeaway levels.
- As the reality of differing supply levels became more apparent, there were increasing reports of variable pricing between print, US numbers, and those in Canadian markets.
- Some Eastern-SPF sawmills already quietly implemented soft shut downs of their operations for the remainder of the year.
- Those ESPF mills still actively selling conspicuously stopped entertaining most counter-offers.
- Wholesalers in the East extended their positions with decent volume buys slated for shipment in the first two weeks of January 2026.
- Waning supply of Southern Yellow Pine resulted in a stalemate between buyers and sellers.
- Low grade SYP material remained tight, particularly in the West and Central zones.
- Despite the lack of demand and takeaway, Eastern Stocking Wholesalers at the ports in New Jersey showed some optimism about the New Year.
Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages
