As expected, the week following the big US Thanksgiving break brought a drop in sales of lumber across North America.
The usual seasonal slow-down arrived, as both suppliers and customers looked forward to the annual Holiday closures. While 2024 was not exactly a year of robust lumber sales, at least the price trendlines returned to some normalcy in comparison to historical. Players felt confident about making New Year plans.
The now regular practice of sawmills to curtail when demand was low; with the goal of keeping manufacturing volumes in line with slumping sales, was successful in at least preventing prices from dropping below cost-of-production. While still muted,
the expectation for lumber sales in 2025 is for improvement over the past two years.
In the week ending December 6, 2024, the price of benchmark softwood lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$475 mfbm. This is up +$5, or +1%, from the previous week when it was $470, said weekly forest products industry price guide newsletter Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
That week’s price is up +$14, or +3%, from one month ago when it was $461.
This post-US Thanksgiving week was a quiet one. Buyers retreated to the sidelines while sawmills sat on firm pricing with order files that took them clear through to 2025.
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KEY TAKE-AWAYS:
- Post-US Thanksgiving inquiry took a noticeable dip.
- Vast swathes of the North American construction industry began their seasonally-typical slowdowns.
- Buyers were phoning around to distributers and wholesalers for coverage of small-volume fill-in needs.
- Savvy players warned of considerable volatility in the New Year as the market appeared to be more oversold than overbought.
- Most sales occurred at the distribution level as buyers focussed on quicker-shipping orders with more tally-flexibility.
- For buyers, short-term replenishment was the name of the game.
- Delivery times were unfortunately more troublesome as winter weather set in.
Madison’s Benchmark Top-Six Softwood Lumber and Panel Prices: Monthly Averages
