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Softwood lumber prices are a good forward indicator of US home buying activity and house prices.
Lumber prices are published every week for that week; housing data comes out monthly with a 2 to 3 month lag. — Madison’s Lumber Prices
In July, national home prices in the US continued to grow at the same pace as in June. The US National Home Price Index, reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices rose at a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of +1.7% in July, unchanged from the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a +3.2% annual gain in July, the lowest annual gain since September 2012. After fifteen straight months’ decreases, the annual growth rate remained unchanged in July.
![](https://madisonsreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Figure1_Jul19.jpg)
Meanwhile, the Home Price Index, released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.7% in July, following a 2.5% increase in June.
On a year-over-year basis, the FHFA Home Price NSA Index rose by 5% in July, after an increase of 4.9% in June.